477
FXUS64 KLIX 171925
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
225 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG TO JUST EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN
MOUNTAINS IS LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. IN DOING SO, THAT WILL ALLOW AT
LEAST SOME WEAK RIDGING TO BUILD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
PW'S BEEN UP AND DOWN AROUND 1.5" THE LAST FEW DAYS WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST RADAR
SHOWS THAT'S ONCE AGAIN THE CASE WHERE STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY BATON ROUGE TO MCCOMB. SATELLITE
LOOP SUGGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS GREATEST IN THIS REGION AND
AS SOON AS THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY REACHED THAT AREA, STORMS
DEVELOPED FROM THAT LIFT.
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK THOUGH, DRIER PATTERN WITH MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES CAN GENERALLY BE EXPECTED. HARD TO SAY NO RAIN
CHANCES EXPLICITLY AFTER WATCHING A CELL THIS PAST WEEKEND DROP 1"
OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES NEAR SLIDELL IN A ~1.25" PW ENVIRONMENT.
REGARDLESS, MINIMALLY IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH TEMPS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
NOT REALLY LOOKING AT ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES THROUGH THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FADES, SO DOES WEAK
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. ITS NOT UNTIL LATE THE FORECAST, NEXT
WEEK, THAT THE PATTERN CHANGES LOCALLY. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A
DEEPER TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN DOING SO, GULF
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD. THIS, COMBINED WITH STILL STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING, WOULD BE THE MAIN DRIVER TO INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VISIBLE SATELLITE
DOES SHOW SCATTERED CU DEVELOPMENT BUT CEILINGS SHOULD BE ABOVE
3KFT. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
FORMING, ESPECIALLY NEAR BTR AND MCB WHERE BOTH RECENT RADAR AND
SATE IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. HOWEVER, THE
PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EITHER
OVERHEAD OR JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. THAT
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE IN RELATION TO THE NEARBY COASTAL WATERS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. EXPECT TO ALSO HAVE DIRECTIONAL CHANGES DUE TO
SEA/LAKE/LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS,
SOUNDS, AND TIDAL LAKES. WAVES AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
1-2 FT FOR NEARSHORE AND PROTECTED WATERS WITH 2- 4 FT IN THE
OUTER WATERS.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 91 66 91 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 69 92 67 92 / 10 0 0 10
ASD 66 90 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 69 89 68 90 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 65 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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