752
FXUS64 KLIX 180445
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1145 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
SHORT TERM
(THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL KEEP A VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN WELL BELOW AVERAGE, AND A STRONG
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION WILL GREATLY INHIBIT DEEPER CONVECTIVE
UPDRAFT FORMATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT, POP VALUES WILL
REMAIN AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DRY
AIR WILL ALSO SUPPORT A LARGER THAN AVERAGE DIURNAL RANGE EACH
DAY. HIGHS WILL EASILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S OR AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, BUT COOL OVERNIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED AWAY FROM ANY COASTAL INFLUENCES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS EACH NIGHT,
AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL START TO TAKE HOLD EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE REGION IS
REPLACED BY A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES.
INITIALLY, THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE
WITH CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE THE PATTERN TRANSITION TO A DEEP
LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN AS THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
TROPICAL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GRADUALLY
CLIMB FROM THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ON SUNDAY TO
THE MEDIAN OF AROUND 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FURTHER MOISTENING TO AROUND 2 INCHES OR NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS OF YEAR COULD HAPPEN BY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD
REGION OF INCREASING POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS
WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AS THE MID- LEVELS COOL
AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO PRODUCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY DIURNAL
WITH POP PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT 30 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL
ALLOW BOTH OVERNIGHT LOWS AND DAYTIME HIGHS TO RETURN TO MORE
AVERAGE READINGS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN WILL GREATLY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, SO THERE IS NO MENTION OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. AS A RESULT, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE NORTH OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE PROTECTED WATERS AND 10 TO 15
KNOTS IN THE OPEN WATERS IN PLACE. WAVES WILL RUN 1 TO 2 FEET IN
THE PROTECTED WATERS AND 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE OPEN WATERS OVER THIS
PERIOD. EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO PULL AWAY AND A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
WATERS. A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA AS THE
HIGH PULLS AWAY WILL DROP WINDS TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND WAVES TO 1 TO
2 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO A PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THIS TIME PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 92 67 93 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 69 92 69 93 / 10 10 0 10
ASD 66 90 67 92 / 0 10 0 0
MSY 72 90 74 91 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 69 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 64 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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