804
FXUS64 KLIX 022347
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
647 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON SUNDAY.
- WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTHEAST
LA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL LAKES, AND HANCOCK, MS
COUNTY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
GULF WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH
AND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THESE EAST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF TO PUSH SOME WATER UP ON OUR EAST FACING SHORELINES
RESULTING IN SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLOODING OF 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. ANY FLOODING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLES WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.
BEYOND THE COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS, OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY RAMP UP EACH DAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ADVECTS
IN A MORE MOIST AIRMASS. HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE SPREAD WILL BE
UNEVEN WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST WHERE
PWATS WILL RUN BETWEEN THE MEDIAN AND 75TH PERCENTILE ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. FURTHER INLAND IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS
AROUND BATON ROUGE, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY
AND THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES IN THESE AREAS.
PRECIPTIABLE WATER VALUES WILL STRUGGLE TO APPROACH THE MEDIAN FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
POP FORECASTS SHOW THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT QUITE WELL WITH POP OF
40 TO 60 PERCENT SOUTH OF I-10 AND 10 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-10
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE INCREASED MOISTURE, CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT, AND RAINFALL WILL ALSO HELP TO TEMPER THE HEAT ACROSS
THE REGION. OVERALL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY LOW IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE
NEAR AVERAGE OR IN THE MID 80S ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WEAK LOW IN
THE GULF WILL MOVE INLAND ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS, A BROAD AREA
OF INCREASED LIFT AND AN INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TO
AT LEAST THE 75TH PERCENTILE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STILL
BE SOUTH OF I-10, WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD APPROACH
DAILY MAX VALUES, AND THIS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN
FOR ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, THE EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED WITH THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IN MORE
URBANIZED LOCATIONS. FURTHER INLAND, HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT SOME BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OF UP TO HALF AN INCH IS
PROBABLE. THE RAINFALL WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO EASE THE ONGOING
MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, BUT ANY RAIN WILL HELP AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN
AVERAGE DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE LOW. HIGHS ARE ONLY FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER
THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS, A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL INVERSION
WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A DECLINE IN DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALLING BACK TO AROUND THE 25TH
PERCENTILE BY WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL TURN FROM MORE
SCATTERED COVERAGE ON MONDAY TO VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE BY
WEDNESDAY. COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL ALSO COME TO AN END BY
MONDAY AS THE EASTERLY FLOW WEAKENS TO LESS THAN 10 MPH. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN WITH HIGHS RISING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, OR AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE, ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS AT FORECAST ISSUANCE
TIME. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS AT KHUM THIS
EVENING, AS KGAO CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR. SHRA/TSRA CURRENTLY
REMAIN OFFSHORE, AND PROBABLY WILL FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. KHUM
COULD SEE SHRA AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BY ABOUT 09Z AS MOISTURE
SPREADS NORTH A BIT. WILL ONLY CARRY MENTION OF CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AT KHUM/KMSY/KNEW, USING PROB30, BUT THE THREAT IS NON-ZERO
AT KASD/KGPT AND PERHAPS KHDC. EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AT TERMINALS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10, WITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT
KNEW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW DEEPENS, A
PROLONGED EASTERLY WIND OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND SWELL
FROM A LONG FETCH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SEAS OF
6 TO 10 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE SOUNDS
AND TIDAL LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND THE TIDAL SOUNDS, AS WELL AS LAKE BORGNE
FROM MIDDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO THESE EXPECTED ROUGH
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 68 86 68 86 / 0 10 0 10
ASD 64 84 66 84 / 10 20 20 30
MSY 73 82 73 82 / 20 30 20 40
GPT 67 84 69 84 / 20 20 20 30
PQL 64 84 67 84 / 10 10 20 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
LAZ069-070-076-078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ550-552-570-
572.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MSZ086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538-
555-557-575-577.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ552-570-572.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG
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