539
FXUS64 KLIX 052359
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
659 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
- WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF SOUTHEAST
LA, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL LAKES, AND HANCOCK, MS
COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY EAST WINDS,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON EAST FACING SHORES, AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND IT WILL WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW EAST
WINDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER,
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA. POP OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IS IN THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SPEAKING OF THE TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S, OR TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, AS SKIES TURN SUNNIER. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS
STAYING A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY DRIVING
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT FORMATION.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AS AN INCREASINGLY
STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH. PWATS WILL FALL CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN FOR THIS OF YEAR AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DRY ALOFT,
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
HELP TO TAMP DOWN DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POP OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. POP OF AROUND 30 PERCENT
IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. ONCE AGAIN, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DIURNAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY DRIES, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO COOL A
BIT MORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER
INLAND AREAS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING GUSTY EAST WINDS,
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON EAST FACING SHORES, AND PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND ACROSS WESTERN
LOUISIANA TONIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES INLAND IT WILL WEAKEN AND
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. THIS WILL ALLOW EAST
WINDS TO DECREASE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING WILL COME TO AN END. HOWEVER,
LINGERING LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER DAYTIME HIGHS TOMORROW TO
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE AREA. POP OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT IS IN THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. SPEAKING OF THE TEMPERATURES, HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S, OR TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR EARLY
OCTOBER, AS SKIES TURN SUNNIER. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS
STAYING A BIT WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S DUE TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT ANY CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY DRIVING
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT FORMATION.
TUESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUED DRYING TREND AS AN INCREASINGLY
STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES THE
DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE GULF SOUTH. PWATS WILL FALL CLOSER TO
THE MEDIAN FOR THIS OF YEAR AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND DRY ALOFT,
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL
HELP TO TAMP DOWN DEEPER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO POP OFF SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. POP OF AROUND 30 PERCENT
IS IN PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO REFLECT
THIS CONVECTIVE RISK. ONCE AGAIN, ANY CONVECTION WILL BE HIGHLY
DIURNAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST BY THE EVENING HOURS. AS THE
ATMOSPHERE SLOWLY DRIES, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO COOL A
BIT MORE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER
INLAND AREAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
BY WEDNESDAY, THE BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WILL START TO SHIFT WEST TOWARD TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS AND RELATED FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND AN AN EVEN DRIER AIRMASS WILL
START TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. PWATS WILL FALL BELOW THE MEDIAN
AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A STRUGGLE. HOWEVER, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 90 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO SPARK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. THESE VERY HIT OR MISS STORMS WILL NOT BE STRONG, BUT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY ROLL THROUGH. ONCE AGAIN, ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN FROM THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY, AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS BY SATURDAY. ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTH, DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THIS
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT A VERY DRY AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING WELL BELOW AVERAGE. SOME WEAK
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS ALSO EXPECTED BEHIND A REINFORCING BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS SLIGHTLY
COLDER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO FALL BACK TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS
IN THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE BIGGER STORY
IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH READINGS DIPPING
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OVER INLAND AREAS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE LAKE, LOWS
WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS
FANTASTIC FOR ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
TERMINALS WERE EXPERIENCING A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT NOW APPEARS TO BE OVER
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. SCATTERED SHRA CONTINUE TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY
AROUND THIS FEATURE, AND COULD OCCUR AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MOST LIGHTNING HAS REMAINED OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
COASTAL PARISHES. HAVE NOT MENTIONED TSRA IN ANY OF THE TERMINALS,
BUT THE THREAT FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO STRIKES IS NON-ZERO.
EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO BECOME THE PREVALENT CONDITION BY
MIDNIGHT, IF NOT SOONER, WITH AT LEAST BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KMCB. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA POSSIBLE ONCE
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
CONDITIONS WILL START TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE AREA
THE PAST FEW DAYS BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND OVER WESTERN LOUISIANA AND
WEAKEN. A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS AS THIS LOW
WEAKENS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO FALL FROM ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY TOMORROW MORNING. SEAS WILL
ALSO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN RESPONSE TO THESE LIGHTER WINDS WITH
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET EXPECTED BY TOMORROW. THESE LIGHTER WINDS AND
CALMER SEAS WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE GULF FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LEADING TO
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF BEING NEEDED BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 70 86 70 89 / 50 40 30 30
BTR 72 87 72 89 / 40 40 20 30
ASD 71 86 70 87 / 50 40 20 30
MSY 75 86 75 86 / 50 40 20 30
GPT 73 83 72 84 / 60 40 20 30
PQL 72 83 70 86 / 60 40 20 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...PG
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