057
FXUS64 KLIX 072313
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
613 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY.
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND MIDWEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH THE BASE EXTENDING SOUTH TO AROUND TENNESSEE. A
PLUME OF HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT STRETCHES FROM THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF TO AROUND THE APEX OF THAT TROUGH. LOCALLY, ITS A
FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST OF THAT HIGHER THETA-E AND
CAN SEE THAT SAME THING VIA RADAR IMAGERY. SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
WILL BE FOCUS FOR AREAS OF CONVECTION BUT LACK OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL KEEP ACTIVITY FROM BECOMING TOO STRONG. CAMS AND GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY AROUND 00Z, SHOWERS WILL FIZZLE
OUT. FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AGAIN TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AFTER POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS WEDNESDAY, LOOKING A
GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. NORTHERN TROUGH DIGS A BIG FARTHER SOUTH AS IT TRACKS INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SEND A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN. POST FRONTAL AIRMASS BRINGS HIGHS DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 80S
AND LOWS INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
ALL TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME, AND SHOULD REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AT LEAST. STILL POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, BUT THE THREAT MAY
NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AT KBTR/KHDC/KMCB/KHUM/KASD. EXPECT
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING, AND VFR BY NOON. WILL NOT
MENTION SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THIS
TIME, AS EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE, IF IT OCCURS AT ALL, IS TOO LOW
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS ALLOWED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO RELAX A BIT TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. SEAS HAVE ALSO
DECREASED TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT SLIDING IN WEDNESDAY WILL BRING THE THE RETURN OF STRONGER
WINDS AND ROUGHER SEA STATE. A LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN
GULF AND GRADUALLY PUSHES TO THE WEST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
WILL INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND
PERHAPS BEYOND. AS FOR TIDAL LAKES AND NEARSHORE WATERS, CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES ARE LIKELY, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 69 87 65 83 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 71 90 68 87 / 10 10 0 0
ASD 69 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 74 90 73 88 / 10 10 0 0
GPT 71 87 68 86 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 69 88 67 86 / 10 10 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...ME
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