702
FXUS64 KLIX 080506
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1206 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY
RAINFALL MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG COASTAL AREAS TODAY.
DRY/COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT INTO NEXT WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE OUTER OPEN WATERS
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A FEW AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE, BUT MAY NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY MORNING.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES, WITH
RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES. DURING THE EVENING, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDED FROM NEAR CLEVELAND TO LITTLE ROCK TO DALLAS-FORT WORTH.
NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY, DEW POINTS FALL OFF TO 60 DEGREES OR BELOW,
WHILE TO THE SOUTH, DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
LOCALLY, THE 00Z LIX SOUNDING FROM 750 MB WAS ALMOST A CARBON COPY
FROM THE MORNING SOUNDING. BELOW THAT POINT, THERE WAS SOME WARMING
AND PERHAPS A LITTLE DRYING, BUT THERE REMAINED SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, AS THERE WON'T EVEN BE A WELL DEFINED WIND
SHIFT. A SHORTWAVE NEAR MEMPHIS THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING TO BE
FINALLY DRIVE DEEPER DRY AIR INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE EXTREMELY
ISOLATED, AND AREAL COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE WELL LESS THAN 20
PERCENT, WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY. LOWER 90S WOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO RECORDS IN SOME LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD FALL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKES IT THAT FAR
SOUTH. HIGHS THURSDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN TODAY, BUT IT
IS A QUESTION OF WHICH WINS OUT, COOL AIR ADVECTION (SOME COOLING)
OR SUBSIDENCE (LITTLE CHANGE). WILL HOLD ON TO THE NBM SOLUTION FOR
NOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
GENERALLY, UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ANCHORED OVER TEXAS
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH TROUGHING NEAR THE EAST COAST AS
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE MOVE INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE TROUGH WILL HELP DEVELOP LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND THEN MOVE IT UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOCALLY, THE ONLY IMPACT THIS HAS IS TO
CONTINUE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR OR BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THE
ENTIRE PERIOD FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA, AND IN THE 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
ALL TERMINALS VFR AT FORECAST ISSUANCE TIME EXCEPT KASD (IFR),
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AT LEAST. STILL
POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT THE
THREAT MAY NOT BE AS GREAT AS IT WAS TUESDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS AT ALL BUT THE NEW ORLEANS
TERMINALS AND KGPT. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING,
AND VFR BY NOON. WILL NOT MENTION SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THIS TIME, AS EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE, IF
IT OCCURS AT ALL, IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION THAT FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, DO NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE A FOG
THREAT FOR THE HOURS NEAR SUNRISE THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE NOTICEABLE LATER TODAY OVER THE OUTER OPEN
WATERS, WHERE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WILL AID IN PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED BY
THURSDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY TO BE NECESSARY ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF
THE WATERS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THOSE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WIND/WAVE
CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON SATURDAY OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS, BUT
PERHAPS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 86 65 84 61 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 90 68 88 63 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 88 67 87 64 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 90 73 88 71 / 10 20 0 0
GPT 88 69 87 66 / 10 10 10 0
PQL 88 67 87 63 / 10 10 10 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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