446
FXUS64 KLIX 231118
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
618 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
AFTER A SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE DAY, THE PATTERN WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY, THE CWFA REMAINS UNDER DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US. THE HIGH THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
EAST. BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL INITIATE
A SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW, WHICH WILL HELP GRADUALLY INCREASE
LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY VALUES. PRIOR TO THIS, HUMIDITY VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
I12 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL BE LACKLUSTER, WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT CONDITIONAL.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS LIGHT TO
MODERATE AGAIN FEEDING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION. ALOFT, THE
PATTERN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS FROM DRY NORTHWEST TO
ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE AND THEN MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF THE AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE
RETURN FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL INITIATE A WARMING TREND GOING
INTO FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE CWFA WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND THE WEATHER TURNS MORE ACTIVE. LOOKING
JUST TO OUR WEST AN H5 IMPULSE WILL BE AMPLIFYING OVER TEXAS
LEAVING OUR REGION IN A DIFLUENT ZONE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE RATHER
ROBUST IMPULSE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME AND MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME
BEFORE OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. EAST OF I55 LOOKS MOSTLY DRY DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY, SO TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
80S. HOWEVER, WHERE CLOUDS AND POPS INCREASE WEST OF I55 DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT COOLER DAYTIME MAX TEMP.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY APPEAR TO BE WETTEST PERIOD AS WAVES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE REGION. THE UPPER IMPULSE
ARRIVES SLOW AS IT CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY, BUT THEN SPEEDS UP INTO
SUNDAY AS IT BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. AS THE TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED, EXPECT ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE FRONT.
AS FOR THUNDER/SEVERE POTENTIAL A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR. THIS FEATURE AS IT DEVELOPS MAY
HELP BACK SURFACE WINDS JUST A BIT DEPENDING ON STRENGTH. WITH
SURFACE BACKING AND MODELS STARTING TO PING A 30-45KT LLJ SUNDAY
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE NONZERO, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
STRONGEST FORCING. THAT SAID, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY LIKELY TO DEVELOP, INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
RATHER WEAK. AS FOR HYDRO CONCERNS, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL LIKELY WILL NOT CAUSE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, IF RAINFALL
BECOMES HEAVY OVER THE URBANIZED OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, SOME AT
LEAST MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPEAKING OF MINOR FLOODING,
WITH THE INCREASING TIDES AND MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW, THERE IS A
COASTAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST FACING
COASTLINES INCLUDING SHELL BEACH AND WAVELAND.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ALOFT THE PATTERN RETURNS TO A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER, MODELS WANT TO HOLD A LOWER-END RAIN
CHANCE ACROSS THE REGION WITH ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PRECIPITATING OUT IN THE FROM OF LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM
THIS, EYES WILL CERTAINLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A
STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR
REGION BY MIDWEEK OR SO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO
AGREE ON EXACT TIMING. ALSO, MODELS ARE NOT INCREDIBLY BULLISH
WITH RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE WITH ONLY LIMITED TIME TO
RECOVER IN TERMS OF MOISTURE. THAT SAID, STRONG CAA TAKES SHAPE
OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN US, A MUCH COOLER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE
SHAPE AROUND OR JUST BEYOND MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL USHER IN
LIKELY THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON RIGHT IN TIME FOR
HALLOWEEN, WHICH WILL SURELY EXCITE THE GUMBO AND CHILI LOVERS IN
OUR REGION. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR THIS TAF CYCLE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
GENERALLY FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE START OF
FRIDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT. THIS
WILL BE BRIEF AS WINDS AND SEAS PICK UP AND BECOME MODERATE THIS
WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. CAUTIONARY HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY. WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS TO SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS THIS WEEKEND. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 51 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 81 54 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 80 52 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 82 64 85 69 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 78 57 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 80 51 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page