984
FXUS64 KLIX 231740
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
- MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10, AND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EAST OF A MCCOMB-GULFPORT LINE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING
SHORELINES DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER QUEBEC THIS MORNING WITH RIDGING MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS STATES. A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WAS OVER UTAH AND
ARIZONA, WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OFF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH A
MUCH DEEPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO AROUND 80 AT MIDDAY.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS ONLY SLOWLY RESPONDING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL STILL ONLY BE NEAR THE 25TH
PERCENTILE AT SUNSET FRIDAY, BUT CLOSER TO THE 75TH PERCENTILE BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD
COVER UNTIL PERHAPS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN THEN ONLY
IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN NEAR CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (25-35 PERCENT), BUT WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH IN MOST AREAS. MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULD
BEGIN TO RECOVER TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT STILL COULD BE A FEW
LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 THAT COULD APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS
WITH WINDS 10-15 MPH.
GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGHS
TOMORROW. IF THERE WAS GOING TO BE AN ADJUSTMENT TO TEMPERATURES, IT
WOULDN'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A DEGREE OR TWO, PROBABLY UPWARD. CHASING
A 1 DEGREE CHANGE DOESN'T QUALIFY AS A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY THOUGH.
COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL STILL LOOKS BORDERLINE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE ON SOUTHEAST FACING COASTLINES, WITH MORE OF A
THREAT SATURDAY NIGHT. ASSUMING NOTHING CHANGES IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS FAR AS GUIDANCE GOES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THIS PACKAGE. EVENING AND/OR
MID SHIFT TONIGHT CAN REVISIT WHETHER WE'LL MEET CRITERIA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH A
STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. EXPECT THAT WE WILL PROBABLY NEED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING SHORELINES FOR HIGH TIDE CYCLE SATURDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WOULD PROBABLY GET ISSUED LATE TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WEST
TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A COUPLE SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THE FIRST WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SABINE RIVER SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE SECOND OVER NEW MEXICO.
PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) WILL
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION PRIOR TO SUNSET, PRIMARILY WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55. THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE 1.8 TO 2 INCH RANGE, ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AND APPROACHING THE TOP OF THE CHART. WHILE SHEAR AND
HELICITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, CURRENT GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING, BUT NON-
ZERO. NAM SOUNDINGS ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY, SO WE CAN'T DISCOUNT THE THREAT ENTIRELY. CURRENT TIMING
WOULD HAVE MOST PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING BEYOND MIDDAY ON SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAIN TOTALS OVER THE WEEKEND APPEAR
JUSTIFIED. HEAVIEST RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55,
WITH A VERY LOW END CHANCE (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) OF 5 INCH
AMOUNTS, PER NBM V5.0.
BEYOND SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS
THE AREA WITH TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. AS EACH ONE PASSES TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA, THERE WILL BE A LOW END THREAT OF
CONVECTION, BUT THE ONLY ONE THAT THE GFS INDICATES MIGHT HAVE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANYTHING WOULD BE ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF A COLD FRONT AT MIDWEEK, AND EVEN THEN, WE'RE ONLY TALKING
ABOUT 20-30 POPS RIGHT NOW.
LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION COULD HOLD TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY IN THE 70S. THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, PROBABLY ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY. SEEING SOME INDICATIONS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE, AND EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS SHOULD ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, SO WILL NOT GO WITH A SHORT TERM HEADLINE. AS ONSHORE
FLOW STRENGTHENS TOMORROW NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM, WE WILL
LIKELY NEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT SOME POINT LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING OVER MUCH OF THE OPEN COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL
CARRY INTO SUNDAY. WILL NOT ISSUE WITH THE CURRENT PACKAGE, PER
COORDINATION WITH LCH AND MOB. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LOOK PRETTY
LIKELY ONCE THE TRUE COLDER AIR ARRIVES AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BUT THAT'S BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST
PACKAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 82 59 79 / 0 0 0 40
BTR 54 84 63 82 / 0 0 0 50
ASD 52 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 20
MSY 64 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 30
GPT 56 81 63 80 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 50 82 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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