505
FXUS64 KLIX 240514
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1214 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY.
- MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REACH NEAR TO BELOW 30%
FOR AREAS IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA ROUGHLY
FROM PASCAGOULA TO HAMMOND TO WOODVILLE.
- BORDERLINE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST
FACING WATERS FOR HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF A THREAT
FOR THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR CRAFT WILL BEGIN
LATER ON FRIDAY AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLIDING THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US WHILE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS MORE OR LESS OVER OUR AREA WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AS WELL. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN TO PUMP
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. NEXT BIG FEATURE TO MOVE
THOUGH WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW AN AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVING
INTO THE ARKLATEX AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WE'LL HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF RELATIVELY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WITH MAYBE A DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S FOR NORTH OF I-12 BUT
WITH THE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE 60S. RIGHT NOW THE MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL AS THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
STRADDLES INTO SUNDAY BUT RAIN COULD START ON THE WESTERN HALF
(WEST OF I-55) AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY AS WATER
STARTS TO PILE AROUND HIGH TIDE CYCLE. DECIDED AGAINST AN
ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY SINCE IT IS BORDERLINE BUT IT'LL DEFINITELY
BE CLOSE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
BEFORE EXITING THE AREA EASTWARD LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
LOOKING AT AREAL AVERAGE OF 1 TO 3 INCHES BUT COULD SEE HIGHER
ISOLATED TOTALS.
FOR SUNDAY, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER, POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. BIGGEST ISSUE IS THERE IS NOT A LOT OF INSTABILITY
IN THE AREA WITH <500 J/KG OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND 500-750 J/KG
DURING THE DAY. SHEAR ISN'T TOO BAD WITH BULK SHEAR IN THE ~40KT
RANGE. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL NEAR
THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN BUT OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT FEELS
KIND OF LACKING.
ONCE MONDAY ROLLS THROUGH, WE MAY STILL HAVE SOME ON AND OFF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS BUT IT'S NOT APPRECIABLE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN EXPECTED. NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH WILL BE TUESDAY
WITH MORE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES COMING IN THROUGH STARTING
WEDNESDAY. WE COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S
ALONG/NORTH OF I-12 AND FOR CLOSER TO THE COAST IT'LL BE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED DURING THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES.
MARINE
UPDATED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
ONSHORE FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS
TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SMALL CRAFT, SO WENT AHEAD AND PUT
CAUTIONARY HEADLINES STARTING LATE TONIGHT THEN STEPPING UP TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO CALM SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK, IT SHOULD GENERALLY BE MORE
BENIGN OUTSIDE OF SOME ISOLATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 51 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 81 54 84 63 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 80 52 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 82 64 85 70 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 78 56 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 80 50 82 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
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