907
FXUS64 KLIX 241838
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
138 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A LOW END (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND A FEW LOW LYING COASTAL ROADS
COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT, ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND BEGIN MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER MISS VALLEY LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO NEW MEXICO. AS THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, EXPECT TO SEE OUR
FIRST SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN SINCE OCTOBER 6.
WE'RE ALREADY SEEING ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND THAT WILL SERVE TO PUMP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE
AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF COASTAL
LOUISIANA. FARTHER INLAND, DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SUBSTANTIALLY
LOWER, BUT EXPECT TO SEE MORE RECOVERY IN THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME, PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HAVE
REBOUNDED INTO THE 1.5-1.75" RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH
IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED, THOUGH, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN 400-500 J/KG OF
CAPE. THAT BEING SAID, WHATEVER QLCS FEATURE MAKES IT TO THE LOCAL
AREA SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD. WHILE ONE OR
TWO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW WITH THIS ROUND.
THE GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE SECOND ROUND OF STORMS. SIMILAR TO ROUND ONE, AN ONGOING
QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX OF STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THESE STORMS WILL ARRIVE IN FAR
WESTERN AREAS AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. BY
THIS TIME, MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE LOCATED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR BETWEEN THE WARM AND COLD FRONT. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO BE A BIT MORE UNSTABLE, BUT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH CAPE
VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 500-750 J/KG RANGE. WE'LL ALSO GET SOME
ADDED LIFT BEING IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING 850MB
JET OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WE'LL HAVE SOME DECENT VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND BULK SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST GENERALLY
AROUND 40KT. ALL THAT BEING SAID, IF THE TIMING LINES UP JUST
RIGHT FOR THESE PARAMETERS TO OVERLAP IN TIME AND SPACE, THE
ENVIRONMENT SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE, DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT, WITH A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE.
REGARDING THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT... THE THREAT FROM THE FIRST
ROUND OF STORMS APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED SINCE CONVECTION SHOULD BE
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES AND THE STORMS COULD EVEN BREAK UP INTO
MORE OF A BROKEN LINE/SCATTERED PATTERN. ROUND TWO HAS SOME
POTENTIAL, THOUGH, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS NEARING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 2" BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS IS ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND APPROACHING THE DAILY MAX.
THANKFULLY THE LINE SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE, AND WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN. THE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE DRIVER
OF ANY FLOODING THAT OCCURS. WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE 1-2" OF
RAIN IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, SOME PONDING OF WATER IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SUNDAY WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT, EXPECT QUIET WEATHER TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY AND WILL BE REINFORCED MIDWEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS REINFORCING FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR A COUPLE
DAYS, WITH LOWS FORECAST IN THE MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO MID
50S SOUTH AND AFTERNOON HIGHS STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE 60S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ESE/SE WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
EASE A BIT AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN TOMORROW
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
ENDS. THE EXCEPTIONS BEING BTR WHERE A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN
INCLUDED FROM 16Z-18Z, AND MSY WHERE THE TAF PRODUCT GOES OUT 30
HOURS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY, THOUGH CAUTION
HEADLINES APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THEREAFTER, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA, WITH WINDS AND SEAS
EASING IN RESPONSE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 79 64 76 / 0 60 70 90
BTR 64 82 67 80 / 10 60 80 90
ASD 60 81 66 79 / 0 30 60 90
MSY 69 85 71 82 / 0 30 60 90
GPT 64 80 67 78 / 0 20 40 80
PQL 58 81 64 79 / 0 10 30 80
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR LAZ070-076-078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MSZ086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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