512
FXUS64 KLIX 250507
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A LOW END (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR AND THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW BRIEF
TORNADOES.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLE SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND A FEW LOW LYING COASTAL ROADS
COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT, ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STORM SYSTEM THAT'S CURRENTLY IMPACTING PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PARTS OF TEXAS WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS LOUISIANA
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTH OVER SOUTHERN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WILL INCREASE THE GRADIENT WINDS MORE INTO
THE 15-20 MPH RANGE. NOT ENOUGH TO HIT ANY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ON LAND BUT AREAS WILL BE BLUSTERY ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO WATER.
THERE IS A MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THREAT DURING HIGH TIDE CYCLES
FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES BUT IT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ONLY
AROUND THIS COMING HIGH TIDE AND PERHAPS ONE MORE ON SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM WISE, THIS EVENT WILL HAVE TWO ROUNDS, ONE MOVING
THROUGH AROUND EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN A SECOND WAVE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WISE, THIS LOOKS TO
BE A DECENT RAINMAKER AS PW VALUES SURGE WELL OVER 1.5 IN AND
MAYBE A FEW AREAS COULD REACH 2 IN CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS COULD
EASILY HAVE 1 TO 3+ INCHES AREAL RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHEN BOTH OF THESE WAVES MOVE THROUGH. FOR THE
FIRST SET OF STORMS, IT WILL ENTER A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT
WITH NOT SO GREAT PARAMETERS. INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY LOW (<500
J/KG) AND LOW SHEAR. SO STORMS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SE LOUISIANA. THE STORMS
FORECASTED TO COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY LOOK TO HAVE
A MARGINALLY BETTER ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
INSTABILITY, SHEAR AND LIFT. SO IT WILL VERY MUCH DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE STORMS AND IF ALL THESE PARAMETERS CAN ALIGN IN JUST
THE RIGHT WAY TO GET SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BUT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SRH THAT COULD SUPPORT BRIEF
TORNADOES. THINGS SHOULD BE CALMING DOWN BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AFTER THE STORMS PASS ON SUNDAY, IT'LL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH
RELATIVELY LOW POP CHANCES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 40S ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-12.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EASING IN RESPONSE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN MOVE INTO THE AREA
STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS AND SEAS EASING IN RESPONSE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 82 58 79 64 / 0 0 60 70
BTR 83 64 82 67 / 0 10 60 80
ASD 82 60 81 66 / 0 0 30 60
MSY 84 69 85 71 / 0 0 30 60
GPT 81 64 80 67 / 0 0 20 40
PQL 82 58 81 64 / 0 0 10 30
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ070-076-
078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ086.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...BL
LONG TERM....BL
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...BL
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