761
FXUS64 KLIX 252317
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
617 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 610 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A LOW END (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THE AREA OF GREATEST
THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN
THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A FEW
BRIEF TORNADOES.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
TONIGHT DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. A FEW LOW LYING COASTAL
ROADS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT, ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER
NORTH TEXAS WITH A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AND IN THE 60S TO THE NORTH.
RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AT LATE
MORNING, BUT WERE WEAKENING AS THEY PROGRESSED EASTWARD. THE LEAD
SHORTWAVE PRODUCING THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER, PRODUCING A LULL IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO ALABAMA AROUND MIDDAY, IF NOT
BEFORE. WHILE MOISTURE AND SHEAR WILL BE PLENTIFUL, INSTABILITY
IS SOMEWHAT LACKING WITH FORECAST MLCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT ROUND OF
CONVECTION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA LOOK REASONABLE TONIGHT, BUT SPOT TOTALS COULD
WELL EXCEED THAT. CONSIDERING THE DRYNESS OVER THE LAST 6 WEEKS,
UNLESS THOSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR IN A VERY SHORT TIME, MAJOR
ISSUES AREN'T ANTICIPATED.
THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A 3RD ROUND OF CONVECTION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IF MID LEVEL DRYING AND SUNSHINE OCCUR
BEHIND THE MORNING CONVECTION. THAT'S A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS
COMPARED TO THE FIRST 24 HOURS, BUT THE REASONING FOR LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
MENTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL END PRIOR TO
SUNRISE MONDAY.
WON'T MAKE MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM TEMPERATURES, AS SUNDAY'S HIGHS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER SUNSHINE OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IF THAT IS GOING TO OCCUR, IT'LL PROBABLY BE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 10.
COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH BEYOND TONIGHT'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, AS ASTRONOMICAL RANGES DIMINISH, AND WINDS DIMINISH.
WILL CONTINUE CURRENT ADVISORY, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A NEED FOR
ONE SUNDAY NIGHT AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER AT SUNRISE MONDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEYOND
THAT POINT. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A
BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, BUT THE MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE, WILL BE THE AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 40 IN SOME OF THE
USUALLY COLDER AREAS. FORECAST HIGHS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GET
BUMPED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT'S NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CHANGE TO CONSIDER A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
IN A BIT OF A LULL BEHIND FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION AND THE ONE
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY THREAT OF TSRA IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM WOULD BE AT KGPT (THROUGH 02Z), AND THAT IS
PROBABLY OVERSTATING THINGS. POTENTIAL FOR TSRA RETURNS BEYOND
05Z, STARTING AT KBTR AND SWEEPING EASTWARD THROUGH MID-MORNING.
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS. WHILE MAIN LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 15Z OR
SO, IF WE GET ANY BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER BEHIND MAIN LINE, THERE IS
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT. ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD END NEAR SUNSET. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY IN LATER PACKAGES,
AS WIND FIELD MAY GO CLOSE TO CALM MONDAY MORNING, AND DRIER AIR
WON'T BE ARRIVING WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES AN
ADDITIONAL 6 HOURS, TO 12Z SUNDAY. WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES OVER AT LEAST THE OUTER OPEN WATERS FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS RELAX SUFFICIENTLY TO NOT
NEED HEADLINES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEE FAIRLY QUIET
CONDITIONS. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALMOST CERTAIN. WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE EVENTUAL NEED
FOR GALE PRODUCTS FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 76 60 75 / 90 100 30 10
BTR 67 80 61 79 / 90 90 20 10
ASD 65 78 61 79 / 70 90 40 10
MSY 71 81 66 81 / 80 90 30 10
GPT 69 78 65 79 / 60 90 60 10
PQL 65 78 61 79 / 40 90 70 20
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ066>070-076-
078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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