503
FXUS64 KLIX 260504
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1204 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING A LOW END (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA IN THE OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING HOURS.
THE AREA OF GREATEST THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES.
- STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES
TONIGHT DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE. A FEW LOW LYING COASTAL
ROADS COULD BECOME IMPASSABLE. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE AS
TIDES FALL INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
- SOME LINGERING STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL CRAFT, ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI
TONIGHT. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEATHER IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING INTO THE AREA. IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH AND BE EAST OF US BY
MIDDAY. WHILE THE CURRENT CONDITIONS JUST WEST OF THE CWA ARE
SUPPORTING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITIES WITH LIGHTNING, THERE ARE
NO STORMS AT THE SEVERE LEVEL. GUSTY, BUT SUB-SEVERE, WINDS ARE
THE MAIN THREAT AND WILL BE MOST LIKELY WEST OF I-55. RAIN
INTENSITIES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS. WIDESPREAD 4AINFALL TOTALS FROM BOTH ROUNDS SATURDAY
AND EARLY SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RAIN IS ACTUALLY WELCOMED AS IT
WILL SOMEWHAT RELIEVE OUR NEAR-DROUGHT TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS
THE RAIN PASSES AND CLEARS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECT
LINGERING CLOUDY SKIES, LIGHT TO BREEZY WINDS, AND MODERATE
TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI-ALABAMA
BORDER AT SUNRISE MONDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY BEYOND
THAT POINT. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THE GFS SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN A
BIT QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS, BUT THE MORE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE, WILL BE THE AIRMASS CHANGE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
BEYOND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE 60S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY MORNINGS POSSIBLY GETTING DOWN TO AROUND 40 IN SOME OF THE
USUALLY COLDER AREAS. FORECAST HIGHS MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO GET
BUMPED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THAT'S NOT A
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH CHANGE TO CONSIDER A TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY.
/RW,DSS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SECOND ROUND OF TSRA MOVING JUST MOVING INTO THE AREA AS OF THIS
ISSUANCE TIME. IT WILL SWEEP WEST TO EAST AND CLEAR THE AREA ABOUT
18Z. CIGS AND VIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF TSRA AND CARRY
THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. AS THE SYSTEM
CLEARS THE AREA CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN AND CIGS WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT ISSUE, BUT CONDITONS SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST MVFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OUT EXCERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER WITH WINDS AT OR JUST ABOVE 15 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD RELAX BY 18Z AND END THE HEADLINE. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS. A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALMOST CERTAIN.
WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE EVENTUAL NEED FOR GALE PRODUCTS FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /RW,DSS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 79 65 76 60 / 70 90 100 30
BTR 81 67 80 61 / 80 90 90 20
ASD 80 65 78 61 / 60 70 90 40
MSY 84 71 81 66 / 60 80 90 30
GPT 79 69 78 65 / 60 60 90 60
PQL 81 65 78 61 / 50 40 90 70
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ066>070-076-
078.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ086>088.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM....DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS
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