692
FXUS64 KLIX 261812
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
112 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
- THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL LOCAL LAND
AREAS.
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN VISIBILITY.
ALLOW EXTRA COMMUTING TIME.
- COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
WITH A SUBSTANTIAL COOLDOWN COMING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
WELL... IT WAS A MORNING. BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS
FINALLY COME TO AN END ACROSS THE LOCAL LAND AREAS. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT MAINLY AROUND AND AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION. VISIBILITY COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE IN SOME PLACES,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN VISIBILITY DROPPING TO 1/4 MILE OR LOWER IS IFFY
SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR VISIBILITY TRENDS THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PRETTY BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S,
AS THE COOLEST AIR LAGS THE FRONT. BUT HIGHS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES MOST PLACES.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A REINFORCING FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
THE MIDWEEK FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WHILE WE NEVER REALLY GET INTO GOOD RETURN
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 1.5" AND 1.75". THIS IS
BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE PRETTY
PROGRESSIVE, SO WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE GENERALLY HIGH (60 PERCENT
OR BETTER MOST PLACES), OVERALL RAIN TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
(LESS THAN A HALF INCH).
BEHIND THIS FRONT, EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER COOL DOWN WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO RISE ABOVE THE 60S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL - INTO THE LOW TO
MID 40S NORTH AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z NOW THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE MOVED AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS. THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, BUT MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN LOW
CIGS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT AT LEAST TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS
TO DEVELOP AT MOST TERMINALS AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN FROM
ALOFT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS BEHIND IT.
BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS HIGH. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 74 55 74 / 10 0 0 10
BTR 61 78 57 78 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 60 78 55 77 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 66 81 62 78 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 63 78 58 74 / 30 0 0 0
PQL 61 79 55 75 / 40 10 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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