194
FXUS64 KLIX 280441
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1141 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
- AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SUDDEN CHANGES
IN VISIBILITY. ALLOW EXTRA COMMUTING TIME.
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO RETURN BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. A GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE MORNING WILL START OFF FOGGY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN, AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY. A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE BASED
TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL FORM THAT WILL DECOUPLE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND PROMOTE FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR INLAND
AREAS. THE FOG WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY MID-MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S. TONIGHT, A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AT THE SAME TIME. A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF
THE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN TO OCCUR
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. PWATS WILL RISE TO
BETWEEN 1.3 AND 1.5 INCHES, AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO
INDUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS. THIS LINE OF SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY PASS
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND POP OF 50 TO 70
PERCENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO REFLECT THIS LIGHT
RAINFALL RISK. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURGE OF DRY AIR ADVECTION AND
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL QUICKLY LOWER PWATS TO AROUND 0.3
INCHES. THESE VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE DRY AIR MOVING IN, A MUCH
COLDER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A
GOOD 10 DEGREES FROM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY WARMING INTO THE 60S
AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. THIS WILL BE THE
FIRST TRUE TASTE OF FALL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD, THE REGION WILL FIND ITSELF
PARKED BENEATH A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY
PATTERN TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 60S ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE COLDEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A FEW
SPOTS NORTH OF I-10 COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S. THE PEARL AND
PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGES ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE UPPER
30S OCCUR. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, BUT THE AREA WILL REMAIN BENEATH A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND
AND LOWS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S
NORTH OF I-10 AND THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-10.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND A REINFORCING FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH ON SATURDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE LARGELY STARVED OF MOISTURE DUE TO A LACK OF
RETURN FLOW. AT MOST, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AND MAYBE A
FEW SPRINKLES CAN BE MUSTERED ALONG THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. HEADING INTO MONDAY, THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST, BUT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FINALLY APPROACH THE AVERAGE FOR THIS OF YEAR WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WARMING TREND IS DUE TO THE EASTERN TROUGH
BEGINNING GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND AN INCREASE IN RIDGING ALOFT IN RESPONSE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING THAT WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE CRITICAL CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE END RESULT WILL
BE AREAS OF FOG FORMING AND IMPACTING SEVERAL OF THE TERMINALS.
WHERE FOG DOES NOT FORM, SOME LOW STRATUS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE
TO THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION AND LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MCB, BTR, HDC, ASD, AND GPT WILL ALL SEE IFR OR LOWER
FOG AND STRATUS FORM BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z WITH THE MOST EXTENSIVE
IMPACTS AT MCB. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THESE TERMINALS BETWEEN
14Z AND 16Z AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
INCREASES. AT NEW, HUM, AND MSY, SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS WILL PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT LOW STRATUS
RANGING FROM 500 TO 1500 FEET IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 10Z AND 14Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONCERNS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z, A FAST
MOVING LINE OF SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE SOME MVFR
VISIBILITIES AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. ANY VISIBILITY IMPACTS SHOULD LAST LESS THAN AN
HOUR, AND THE RAIN THREAT WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THE FIRST TRUE COLD FRONT OF THE YEAR WILL PASS THROUGH THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS ADVECTS OVER THE STILL
WARM COASTAL WATERS, DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND MOST LIKELY GALE
CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS. THESE GALE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AS A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE STRONG
WINDS AND INCREASE TO OVER 12 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
INEXPERIENCED BOATERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATERS
FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND A GALE WATCH IS
IN EFFECT DUE TO THESE ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS. THIS WATCH WILL
LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH PARKS DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL DROP TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 78 50 61 / 0 10 80 10
BTR 57 82 52 65 / 0 10 70 0
ASD 55 78 51 66 / 0 0 60 0
MSY 63 81 57 69 / 0 0 60 0
GPT 58 78 53 67 / 0 0 60 10
PQL 55 77 52 68 / 0 0 50 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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