167
FXUS64 KLIX 290004
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
704 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 657 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. A SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. MUCH COOLER AIR IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PLAINS STATES WITH RIDGING ALONG THE
PACIFIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM WESTERN
MINNESOTA TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NORTH TEXAS. LOCALLY, LOW
CLOUDS WERE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING WEST OF INTERSTATE 55.
TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AT NOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG EAST AND SOUTHEAST, CLOSING
OFF AN UPPER LOW NEAR MEMPHIS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, MOVING TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
OVER TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BE LOCATED
NEAR MEMPHIS TOMORROW MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO GO THROUGH THE
OCCLUSION PROCESS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, AND WILL BE ABOUT AS
FAR EAST AS INTERSTATE 65 IN ALABAMA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ABOUT A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW AT ANY ONE
LOCATION WHERE THE AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
RIGHT ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY, THE MAIN
LIMITATION WILL BE INSTABILITY. IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS,
IT WILL HAVE ROTATION. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN
EFFECT FOR EXTREME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AND
COULD POTENTIALLY GET EXPANDED EASTWARD LATER.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER, BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF ISSUES ASIDE FROM THE COOLER
AIR. THE FIRST WILL BE WIND. WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SHOULD
SEE SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH, AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE WIND SPEEDS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 MPH,
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. WILL START WIND
ADVISORY AT 09Z TO INCLUDE THE MORNING RUSH HOUR, AND EMPHASIZE
IMPACTS ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
ADDITIONAL AREAS MAY NEED ADDED TO THE ADVISORY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS WEDNESDAY. ALSO, WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS GOING TO GET THE ATTENTION OF PEOPLE
TOMORROW, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 60S IN MOST
AREAS. THAT WOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY SINCE THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS MENTIONED ABOVE COULD IMPACT
FORECAST LOWS THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THE WIND FORECAST INDICATES
THE AIRMASS WILL BE WELL MIXED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
THIS WILL BRING AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH
THE FRONT. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE RAIN CHANCES COME UP IN
LATER PACKAGES.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY AND MOST OF THE
DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY, PERHAPS HIGHS OF 70-75, THE COLD AIR WILL
GET REINFORCED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF CLOUDS HANG IN ACROSS THE
AREA, HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO GET BEYOND 60-65.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY MORNING ARE LIKELY TO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
PERIOD, AND SOME OF THE LOCALLY COLDER AREAS (PEARL AND PASCAGOULA
RIVER BASINS) MAY BRIEFLY DIP BELOW 40 DEGREES. MODERATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING A STRONG COLD
FRONT IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH 12Z. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
WILL IMPACT BTR AND MCB BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z WITH A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES, MVFR CEILINGS OF 1500 TO 2500 FEET,
LIGHTNING, AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. THESE SAME
CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD TO THE EAST AND IMPACT THE MSY, HDC,
HUM, NEW, AND ASD BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z. GPT WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE
ANY IMPACTS, AND THESE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SKIES WILL
ALSO QUICKLY CLEAR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN, AND PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z. SOME LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL BE AN ISSUE
AT BTR, HDC, MCB, AND ASD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS AS EARLY
AS THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE UPGRADED GALE WATCH TO GALE WARNING
WITH THIS PACKAGE, AND ADVANCED START TIME TO 06Z. WILL PROBABLY
EVENTUALLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE WAKE OF THE GALE
WARNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. MAY NEED
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT TROUGH
PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 49 60 47 63 / 90 10 10 0
BTR 51 64 48 66 / 90 0 0 0
ASD 51 65 47 66 / 80 0 0 0
MSY 56 68 53 68 / 70 0 0 0
GPT 54 67 50 67 / 70 0 0 0
PQL 52 68 47 67 / 60 20 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ064-068>070-
077-078-087>090.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...RW
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