119
FXUS64 KLIX 291120 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG WIND GUSTS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW AT THE BASE OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY DAYBREAK. IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG FORCING AND JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE HAVE PRODUCED A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS. FORTUNATELY, THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM RISK HAS DIMINISHED DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS THE COAST LATE
TONIGHT, A DRY WEATHER REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK OF A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE STRONG FLOW ALOFT THAT IS
BEING INDUCED BY THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. STRONG WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH WILL EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE IN THE FORM OF
FREQUENT GUSTS STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THESE FREQUENT WIND GUSTS, A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO PUSH A THERMAL TROUGH INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOWS MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
OVERALL, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER POTENT
VORTICITY MAX AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND, AND THIS
WILL DRIVE A REINFORCING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT, STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH THE
LIMITED MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THIS REFLECTED WITH 20 POP IN THE
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THIS REINFORCING FRONT WILL KEEP A DRIER
AIRMASS IN PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE
DRAMATICALLY. READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THIS MORNING THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND LLWS
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN TERMINALS. SHEAR SHOULD BE REDUCED SHORTLY AS
SURFACE WINDS BALANCE A BIT AS THEY INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARD OF 25-30KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE,
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR CIGS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR MOST TERMINALS AS A LOW STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT
OR SO. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALE CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVING
OVER THE WARMER WATERS ALLOWS WINDS TO REACH GALE FORCE. A GALE
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT LIGHTER WINDS AND CALMER SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
FRIDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. A
REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 47 63 41 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 64 47 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 65 47 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 68 52 68 51 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 66 50 67 45 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 69 47 67 40 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-
552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
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