612
FXUS64 KLIX 051141
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
541 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
YET ANOTHER CALM/QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT AS CHILLY AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE,
VERIFICATION WITH YESTERDAY'S MINT'S APPEARED TO BE ON POINT
BETWEEN THE 50TH/75TH PERCENTILE PLUS LOWERING THE DRAINAGE
BASINS, AND TOOK THE SAME APPROACH TONIGHT AS WE STILL RESIDE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH, NOW CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD TO PROMOTE ANOTHER NIGHT
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ADDITIONALLY, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING TO
DAYBREAK. FOR NOW, PROBABILITIES INDICATE FOG TO BE NOT TOO
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE, BUT A FEW AREAS COULD BRIEFLY HIT 1/2 TO 1/4
AT TIMES SO USE CAUTION DURING YOUR WORK COMMUTE. SINCE GUIDANCE
NEVER CHANGED MUCH AND GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED METEOROLOGICAL
REASONINGS, NOT EXPECTING A FG.Y BUT IF TRENDS PLAY ME FOR A FOOL,
WILL REASSESS. ANY FOG AROUND WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
GOING INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR HIGHS
AS WE'LL TOP OUT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70'S. WILL BRING TO
ATTENTION WHAT'S SPINNING IN THE GULF (DID THAT GET YOUR
ATTENTION?) ACTUALLY, IN THE FORM OF A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING/RETROGRADING WEST. LOOKING AT TOTAL COLUMN PW, THIS
FEATURE HOLDS WITH IT A NOTICEABLE/DISTINCT SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT
WILL, WITH TIME, SURGE SFC TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH TO THE EAST. THE
INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE, SURGING DEWPOINTS HIGHER WILL MAKE IT
FEEL NOT AS DRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT FOCUS THEREAFTER
BECOMES HOW THIS MORE MOIST, MODIFIED AIRMASS PROMOTES/INCREASES
THE RISK FOR FOG THURSDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, GUIDANCE IS COMING
IN PRETTY STRONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD, DENSE FOG WITH BEST
CONFIDENCE ALONG THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN, EAST/NORTH TO SW MS AND
THE NORTHSHORE AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL MS. FG.Y HEADLINES COULD BE
WARRANTED ESPECIALLY IF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN STRONG
CONFIDENCE. KLG
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
WITH THE SAME WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE, WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF AREAS OF FOG AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
THEN, REALLY WARMING UP FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW TO MID 80'S.
FOR NOW, THIS IS NOT RECORD-BREAKING HEAT, BUT ABOVE-NORMAL NONE-
THE-LESS. BY THIS POINT, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PW "SLUG" OF MOISTURE THAT WAS ORIGINALLY PULLED NORTH BY THE
EARLIER (NOW DISSIPATING) MID-LEVEL LOW, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WE'LL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ALL OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONT, DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING SE INTO
MID MS VALLEY TO MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS BUT DE-AMPLIFIES WITH TIME,
RESULTING IN A SLOWING/WEAKENING FRONT INTO OUR GENERAL AREA.
GIVEN THAT, FORCING FOR ANY SHOWER/ISOLATED STORM WILL BE MORE
THERMODYNAMIC DRIVEN, COINCIDING WITH WAA/PERSISTENT MOISTURE
ADVECTION. TYPICALLY, THIS REGIME SUPPORTS "CONFLUENCE" BANDS OF
SHOWERS, SOMETHING THE CAMS WILL BEGIN TO DEPICT AS WE GET CLOSER
WITH TIME. JUMPED ON BOARD THE NBM'S STEADY UPWARDS TREND IN POPS
AND WENT AHEAD WITH AN INCREASE OF 10-20% JUST ABOUT AREAWIDE,
WHICH PLACES MANY AREAS IN THE 40-50% CHANCE FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. DEFINITELY NOT AN ALL-DAY WASHOUT, BUT WOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING AN UMBRELLA WITH YOU.
SATURDAY THE FRONT EARLIER STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT ANY FARTHER SOUTH
AND LOSES FRONTOGENETIC CHARACTERISTICS. THE BIG STORY THEN
BECOMES WHAT IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN US AS TWO SHORTWAVE
IMPULSES PHASE UP LEADING TO AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST-CENTRAL US COINCIDING WITH STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS WILL SURGE A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THIS FRONT LOOKS DRY AS THE BETTER MOISTURE
PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST FRONT AND
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IMPULSE, ROBBING ANY AVAILABLE MOISTURE. WINDS
PICK UP LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONT, AS
STRONG/DEEPENING CAA SETTLES INTO THE REGION SUPPORTED BY A
1040MB+ SURFACE HIGH SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. WITH WINDS LIKELY
PERSISTING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THAT'LL PREVENT IT FROM
BECOMING TOO COLD BUT STILL WON'T HAVE ANY PROBLEM REACHING THE
LOW/MID 40'S AREAWIDE TO MID UPPER 30'S FOR NORTHERN AREAS. DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY, WE'LL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 60'S AS CAA
CONTINUES.
ONCE THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALLOWING CAA TO RELAX, WE'LL
SEE THE COLDEST MORNING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH EARLY THOUGHTS LAST NIGHT
PRODUCING WHAT WILL LIKELY BE THE FIRST FREEZE FOR THE NORTHERN
1/3 TO 1/2 OF THE AREA, AND FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AS FAR AS THE DEPTHS OF THE SCIENCE GOES LOOKING AT MANY DIFFERENT
LONG-RANGE ANOMALY TOOLS LIKE EFI (ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX)
SHIFT OF TAILS AND GEFS M-CLIMATE PERCENTILES TO INTERROGATE HOW
ANOMALOUS AN AIRMASS LIKE THIS IS, ALL STRONGLY TARGET THE SE US
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF IMPACTFUL FREEZE TO NEAR-FREEZING
CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST. NOT GOING TO TOY WITH
EXACT NUMBERS YET, AS DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
ALIGNMENT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED A FEW UPPER 20'S POPS OUT IN
SOME COLDER LOCATIONS.
WILL MENTION GIVEN THE LONG-RANGE CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTFUL COLD
TEMPERATURES AND THE FACT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SINCE MID-FEBURARY ACROSS THE REGION, NOW WOULD BE
GOOD EARLY HEADS-UP TO GO OVER PRECAUTIONS YOU NEED TO TAKE
INCLUDING CONSIDERING PROTECTING SENSITIVE VEGETATION, PLANNING
FOR PETS AND CHECKING ON THE ELDERLY. BEYOND TUESDAY, WE WARM UP
STEADILY GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KLG
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
FOR THIS MORNING, IT WILL BE A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR/VFR DEPENDING
ON IF THE TERMINAL IS BEING IMPACTED BY FOG OR NOT. BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS THE ONES BEING IMPACTED THE MOST ARE MCB,
HUM, HDC BUT COULD ALSO SEE IT AT BTR AND ASD. THERE'S SOME
SHALLOW FOG ONGOING AT MSY BUT CURRENTLY NOT THINKING IT'LL GET
TOO MUCH WORSE THAN THAT SO LEFT OUT MENTION OF LOWER VIS.
ONCE THE SUN RISES, FOG SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT AND ALL TERMINALS
WILL RETURN TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MARINE WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, WINDS
SHIFT MORE ONSHORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WE'LL
ALSO SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE PRIMARILY DURING
THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS
SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MARINE WATERS
INTRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25-35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING
TO AROUND 7-10FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE
SUN/EARLY MON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, THEN, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 75 51 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 77 54 79 62 / 0 0 0 10
ASD 77 50 78 60 / 0 0 0 10
MSY 79 60 79 66 / 0 0 0 10
GPT 76 54 76 63 / 0 0 0 10
PQL 78 49 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KLG
LONG TERM....KLG
AVIATION...BL
MARINE...KLG
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