102
FXUS64 KLIX 051826
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1226 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- STEADY WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK AND THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80'S FRIDAY &
SATURDAY FOR MANY AREAS - AROUND 8-12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
- INCREASING MOIST, SOUTHERLY GULF RETURN FLOW WILL INTRODUCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE AREA, WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING
IN MORE WIDESPREAD/POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG THURSDAY MORNING AND
COULD CONTINUE AGAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.
- NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH SUNDAY, INTRODUCING THE
COLDEST AIR SO FAR THIS SEASON EARLY NEXT WEEK - A FREEZE COULD
BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY
THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER BASINS AS WELL AS THE FLORIDA
PARISHES AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
OVERALL, SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TODAY TO THE OVERALL PATTERN WHEN
COMPARED TO THE LAST DAY OR TWO. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER STARTING TO WEAKEN A BIT. AT THE
SURFACE, LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON
A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION LATER TODAY. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT, RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH A BIT BETTER
MOISTURE QUALITY SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MS AND THE FLORIDA PARISHES. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES,
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A BIT DURING THE DAY. ALOFT, A MOSTLY
PROGRESSIVE FLOW TAKES SHAPE. ALTHOUGH NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
WARMING TREND WITH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
GRADUALLY CLIMB WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM RETURN FLOW SETTING UP
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MODESTLY INCREASE GOING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITHIN THE FLOW, RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
FILER INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT DUE INTO THE REGION
EARLY ON IN THE WEEKEND. A FEW LOW TOPPED STREAMER SHOWERS OR
POSSIBLE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (A ROGUE RUMBLE OR TWO) WILL BE
POSSIBLE IF AN UPDRAFT CAN GAIN SOME MOMENTUM. THIS WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE. ALTHOUGH RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
A BETTER QPF SIGNAL, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SO POPS
WERE INCREASED A BIT TO HIGHLIGHT A BETTER COVERAGE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
THE INITIAL WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY. NO REAL IMPACT OUTSIDE OF DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE
REGION WITH ALSO A DRIER WESTERLY OR WNW FLOW ALOFT. EYES SHIFT
QUICKLY TO WHAT'S TO COME ON SUNDAY WITH A MUCH MORE ROBUST
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY.
THE STRONGER FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWFA. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
THE BIG SIGN OF THE FROPA WILL BE THE BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
THAT DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. CAA WILL TAKE SHAPE WITH
TEMPERATURES PERHAPS FALLING LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
FURTHER SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MS GULF COAST AND COASTAL SE LA,
TEMPERATURES STILL HAVE CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
70S BEFORE THE COLD PLUNGE TAKES PLACE.
BRISK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE STORY TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK.
A STRONG 1040MB SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME EVEN REMAINING IN THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SETTLING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST,
WINDS GO CALM. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND ALMOST PERFECT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SET UP OVER THE AREA. CONSENSUS
BLENDS INDICATE TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I10/12 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS PATTERN AND
ALSO THE FACT THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC CAME IN COOLER LAST NIGHT
(MUCH COOLER) TRENDED THESE TEMPERATURES DOWN PLACING NEARLY ALL
OF THE NORTHSHORE, BATON ROUGE METRO, AND THE MS GULF COAST
NORTHWARD IN A LIKELY FREEZE SCENARIO. WITH GLOBALS THE RESPECTIVE
RESOLUTIONS, THESE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD CALL AND MAY STILL EVEN BE A
BIT TOO WARM, ESPECIALLY FOR THE COOLER DRAINAGE AREAS ALONG THE
PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. VIS REDUCTIONS DO CREEP UP LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WITH AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE FOR SOME TERMINALS...MOSTLY WEST OF THE I59/55 CORRIDORS.
IFR OR LOWER FOR A BRIEF TIME IS POSSIBLE FOR THESE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE ON
THURSDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTH ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS MARINE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT
MORE ONSHORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WE'LL ALSO SEE
SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE PRIMARILY DURING THE
MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS
SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MARINE WATERS
INTRODUCING STRONG OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25-35 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING
TO AROUND 7-10FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 77 60 79 / 0 0 10 50
BTR 54 80 63 83 / 0 0 10 40
ASD 52 77 61 79 / 0 0 10 50
MSY 60 79 67 82 / 0 0 20 50
GPT 55 77 63 77 / 0 0 10 50
PQL 51 78 60 79 / 0 0 10 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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