857
FXUS64 KLIX 061712
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1112 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1110 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AND WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR.
- HIGHER WINDS (15-25KT) AND SEAS (5-10FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 20NM
OR FARTHER OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ALOFT, MOSTLY A ZONAL/PROGRESSIVE FLOW OVER THE CWFA TODAY. THERE
IS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF, BUT THIS FEATURE
WILL NOT PLAY MUCH OF A ROLE IN OUR FORECAST. AS SOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, THIS FEATURE WILL QUICKLY OPEN
AND KICK EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA BY THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY
DAY TODAY AND NIGHT TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
OUTSIDE OF A WARMER AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY TODAY
AND FRIDAY, EXPECT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING RICH LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW. CAPE VALUES ARE ENOUGH FOR ADDING A BIT MORE THUNDER TO THE
FORECAST, BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL RESIDE NORTH AND EAST OF
OUR CWFA. THAT SAID, CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO
ESPECIALLY IN THE WIDER MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. FINALLY, AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BREAKS DOWN AFTER WE
DECOUPLE THIS EVENING, EXPECT AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY
OVER THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
(FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
ANOTHER SHOT OF FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING TAKES PLACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
WEAK FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL MOSTLY BRING MUCH
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES IN THE MEDIUM RANGE. SATURDAY MAY ACTUALLY BE THE REGION'S
WARMEST DAY WITH THE MUCH DRIER AIR AND LIMITED THICKNESS
CHANGES. STRONG SURFACE HEATING FROM MIXING WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE,
SO MOST OF THE REGION WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S TO MAYBE EVEN
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER. DON'T GET USED TO IT! A MUCH
STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. BECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS
FRONT DRYING THE REGION OUT, QPF SIGNAL IS WEAK. KEPT POPS
NONZERO BUT STILL PRETTY CLOSE TO ZERO CONSIDERING THE DRY
ENVIRONMENT. FURTHERMORE, AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ENHANCING THE
STRONG CAA, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLIGHTLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED SO LIMITED COOLING
ALTHOUGH STILL COLD WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
RESPECTIVELY (WITH COLDER FEELS LIKE TEMPS), BUT THE REAL SHOCK
DOESN'T COME UNTIL MONDAY WHEN THE ENTIRE REGION STRUGGLES TO
REACH THE MIDDLE 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON. ABOUT THIS TIME THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR CWFA LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY ENHANCING THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE REGION. GLOBALS AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AS WELL AS STAT GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN CREEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN FURTHER SO CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND THIS PACKAGE. IN
FACT WE ARE NOW GETTING INTO HARD FREEZE TERRITORY FOR THE COOLEST
REGIONS (DRAINAGE BASINS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST MS). WE STILL
HAVE A FEW DAYS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
AND A STRONG ~1035MB SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION THE TEMPS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL DROP LIKE A ROCK.
AFTER THE COLD START ON TUESDAY, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO START TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THIS POINT AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES
DOWNSTREAM ALLOWING FOR A WARMER ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
REGION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE STILL MOSTLY IN CHARGE AND DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THE LONG TERM ENDS DRY. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LIGHT ESE OR SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE CYCLE AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 5-10KTS BY LATE FRIDAY
MORNING. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN TERMINALS WHERE
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. MVFR/IFR OR LOWER WILL
CONTINUES AS LOW STRATUS OVERSPREADS THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING LATE MORNING. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST THU NOV 6 2025
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
MARINE WATERS TODAY. BY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, WINDS SHIFT
MORE ONSHORE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. WE'LL
ALSO SEE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE PRIMARILY DURING
THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT SWINGS THROUGH MARINE WATERS INTRODUCING STRONG
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING TO AROUND 7-
10FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION ALLOWING
FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 80 61 81 / 20 50 10 10
BTR 62 83 63 84 / 20 40 10 10
ASD 60 80 62 81 / 20 50 10 10
MSY 66 83 66 84 / 20 50 10 10
GPT 62 78 64 80 / 20 50 10 10
PQL 60 79 62 81 / 20 50 20 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF/KLG
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