691
FXUS64 KLIX 070542
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1142 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
- DENSE FOG IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASINS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF THE RIVER
PARISHES AND BATON ROUGE METRO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD PROMPT
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR. PLAN TO WINTERIZE YOUR OUTDOOR AREAS BY COVERING
PLANTS AND PIPES, AND DRIPPING FAUCETS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHER WINDS (20-30KT) AND SEAS (7-12FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
20NM OR FARTHER OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LATEST SREF/HREF PROB VISIBILITY GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH (>60%)
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
GLAMP VISIBILITY GUIDANCE SHOWING AREAS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1/4SM HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND BETWEEN THE PEARL RIVER AND PASCAGOULA RIVER BASINS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. ONSET OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FAVORED ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
BECOME EVIDENT ON GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNELS WHERE
LOW STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BUILDING DOWN BETWEEN ASD THROUGH PQL AND
UP THROUGH BXA. GPT AND PQL HAVE ALREADY REPORTED VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 1 MILE SINCE 10PM CST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG IS ONE OF THE MOST
DISRUPTIVE AND DEADLY WEATHER HAZARDS TO TRANSPORTATION AND
COMMERCE IN AMERICA. DRIVERS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR
ROAD CONGESTION, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
DISTANCES.
AREAS WEST OF I-55 COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT OVERSPREADING OF STRATUS FROM
ENHANCED MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. BY DAYBREAK, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AT THE TAIL-END OF THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS DIVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO KICK UP SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST, BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS COULD
PROVIDE A QUICK DOWNPOUR FOR THE LUCKY FEW TO PROVIDE SOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DEPARTS, IT'LL PUSH THROUGH A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LARGELY JUST AMOUNT TO A WIND SHIFT TO MORE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SIGNALS HAVE
BEEN REASONABLE STRONG FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST SREF/HREF GUIDANCE IS LUKEWARM ON
WHETHER THIS FOG WILL BECOME DENSE (<1/4 SM), BUT FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES CAN HONE IN ON THESE CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT CLIMATE SITES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE POLAR JETSTREAM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FAVOR FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO DIVE OUT OF
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PHASE INTO A DEEP, LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ARRIVING TO THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY CLEARS THE AREA OUT AND LOWERS DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. POPS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONT DEPENDING ON MOISTURE TRENDS AND TIMING, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING BREEZING
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH ACROSS THE AREA
AND AN OVERALL GRADUAL COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME AS THE
COLDEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT'S PRESENCE
REALLY WON'T BE FELT BY MOST UNTIL THEY STEP OUTSIDE MONDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
ESCAPE THE 50S. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING NORTHERLY WINDS, A
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD DRAINAGES REGIME WILL ALLOW
MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TO REACH
FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON ON TUESDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE FREEZING
CONDITIONS, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN WINTERIZING YOUR OUTDOOR
AREAS BY COVERING PIPES AND PLANTS, AND PLANNING TO BRING POTTED
PLANTS AND PETS INDOORS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND EACH DAY BEGINNING
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, IT'S UNCLEAR GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHETHER THIS EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MORE CONSISTENT COLD FRONTS WILL
PERSIST OR WHETHER WE SEE A PATTERN FLIP TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE TO WARMER, AND MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER BY MID-MONTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING AT MOST TERMINALS WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. IFR TO LIFR FOG CONDITIONS ARE
BEGINNING TO BE OBSERVED AT ASD, GPT, AND PQL SITES. OVERNIGHT
EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY MVFR FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. IFR TO LIFR FOG IS MOST LIKELY AT
MCB, ASD, AND GPT BETWEEN 0600-1200 UTC. INCREASING MVFR TO IFR
STRATUS OVERSPREADING WESTERN AREAS SUCH AS HUM, BTR, AND HDC
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT, BUT COULD SEE INTERMITTENT DROPS IN VIS. ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL CONCLUDE BY 1200-1400 UTC AS -SHRA MOVES IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VIS WILL BE FAVORED AND -TSRA
CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT TERMINALS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS. PROB30S
REFLECT THE TIMING OF THIS CONVECTION MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST.
JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD, EXPECT VIS IMPACTS AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING
DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WE'LL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE ISOLATED, WEAK STORMS ALONG THE COAST PRIMARILY DURING
THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MARINE WATERS INTRODUCING STRONG
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING TO AROUND 7-
12FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 80 60 81 / 0 30 10 10
BTR 63 83 62 83 / 10 20 10 10
ASD 58 79 60 81 / 0 30 0 0
MSY 65 83 65 83 / 10 30 10 0
GPT 61 77 63 79 / 0 30 10 0
PQL 58 79 60 80 / 0 30 10 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAZ039-071-076-
079>082.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MSZ070-071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...TJS
MARINE...TJS
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