462
FXUS64 KLIX 071253
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
653 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 553 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- DENSE FOG IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER
BASINS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.
PATCHY DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF THE RIVER
PARISHES AND BATON ROUGE METRO FRIDAY MORNING WHICH COULD PROMPT
EXPANSION OF THE ADVISORY.
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN ON SATURDAY MORNING.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR. PLAN TO WINTERIZE YOUR OUTDOOR AREAS BY COVERING
PLANTS AND PIPES, AND DRIPPING FAUCETS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHER WINDS (20-30KT) AND SEAS (7-12FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL
CRAFTS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND
GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
20NM OR FARTHER OFFSHORE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS
ALL OBSERVATION SITES HAS SHOWN IMPROVED VISIBILITIES TO ALMOST
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES (10SM ). AT THE SAME TIME LOW CLOUDS
HAVE BEEN BUILDING RANGING FROM AS LOW AS 600-800 FT AND OVER
5500 FT. LOOKING THE VWP (VAD WIND PROFILE), WINDS HAVE INCREASED
TO 20 KNOTS AT THE 1ST GATE (1K FT) AND 25 KTS AT THE 2ND GATE.
THIS TYPICALLY LEADS TO MORE OF A STRATUS DECK AND NOT FOG
ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE OF A RADIATIONAL FOG
EVENT AND NOT ADVECTION FOG. WITH THE IMPROVEMENT THE DENSE FOG
ADV WAS CANCELLED BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT
FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING.
AS FOR RAIN TODAY, LATEST NBM, HRRR, AND CAMS HAVE REALLY STARTED
TO TANK ON THE POPS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-55 BUT EVEN
WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER. THAT SAID THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE
THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA OR MORE SO SPRINKLES OVER
THE EASTERN HALF/3RD OF THE CWA BUT MOST PEOPLE SHOULD NOT EXPECT
ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN TODAY. BIGGEST ISSUE IS THIS REALLY IS
NEEDING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA AND THAT IS LOOKING MORE ON THE WEAK
SIDE. THERE IS STILL SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT, SHOWING UP THE BEST
AROUND THE 300K LVL BUT IT IS A VERY NARROW WINDOW AND SMALL
AREA (ALL EAST OF I-55 FROM 13/14Z ON I-55 TO 19/20Z OVER COASTAL
MS. YOU CAN EVEN ALREADY SEE THE WESTERN EXTENT OF WHERE LIGHT
RAIN COULD DEVELOP ON WV AND THAT IS ALREADY RIGHT ALONG THE I-55
CORRIDOR. WITH THAT IT IS LIKELY THAT BTR, MCB, HUM, AND A GOOD
CHANCE THAT HDC AND MSY COULD ALL REMAIN DRY. NEW ZONES WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY TO SHOW THE LOWER POPS. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
LATEST SREF/HREF PROB VISIBILITY GUIDANCE INDICATING HIGH (>60%)
PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
GLAMP VISIBILITY GUIDANCE SHOWING AREAS OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1/4SM HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND BETWEEN THE PEARL RIVER AND PASCAGOULA RIVER BASINS
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS. ONSET OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
FAVORED ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
BECOME EVIDENT ON GOES NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB CHANNELS WHERE
LOW STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BUILDING DOWN BETWEEN ASD THROUGH PQL AND
UP THROUGH BXA. GPT AND PQL HAVE ALREADY REPORTED VISIBILITIES
LESS THAN 1 MILE SINCE 10PM CST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DENSE FOG IS ONE OF THE MOST
DISRUPTIVE AND DEADLY WEATHER HAZARDS TO TRANSPORTATION AND
COMMERCE IN AMERICA. DRIVERS IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR
ROAD CONGESTION, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND INCREASE FOLLOWING
DISTANCES.
AREAS WEST OF I-55 COULD STILL SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT OVERSPREADING OF STRATUS FROM
ENHANCED MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS
SHOULD LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. BY DAYBREAK, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
AT THE TAIL-END OF THE LARGER TROUGH AXIS DIVING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO KICK UP SOME SHOWERS THAT WILL
SPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST, BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED STORMS COULD
PROVIDE A QUICK DOWNPOUR FOR THE LUCKY FEW TO PROVIDE SOME
REPRIEVE FROM THE ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA.
AS THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE DEPARTS, IT'LL PUSH THROUGH A WEAK
BOUNDARY THAT WILL LARGELY JUST AMOUNT TO A WIND SHIFT TO MORE
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND SIGNALS HAVE
BEEN REASONABLE STRONG FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. LATEST SREF/HREF GUIDANCE IS LUKEWARM ON
WHETHER THIS FOG WILL BECOME DENSE (<1/4 SM), BUT FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES CAN HONE IN ON THESE CONCERNS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AT CLIMATE SITES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE POLAR JETSTREAM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL FAVOR FALLING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THAT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A DEEPER TROUGH TO DIVE OUT OF
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND PHASE INTO A DEEP, LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A DEEP ARCTIC
AIR MASS THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE WEEKEND,
ARRIVING TO THE GULF COAST BY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH WILL BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON FRIDAY CLEARS THE AREA OUT AND LOWERS DEW POINTS BACK INTO
THE LOWER 60S. POPS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
FRONT DEPENDING ON MOISTURE TRENDS AND TIMING, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BRING BREEZING
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25-30MPH ACROSS THE AREA
AND AN OVERALL GRADUAL COLD TEMPERATURE ADVECTION REGIME AS THE
COLDEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. THE FRONT'S PRESENCE
REALLY WON'T BE FELT BY MOST UNTIL THEY STEP OUTSIDE MONDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO
ESCAPE THE 50S. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING NORTHERLY WINDS, A
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND COLD DRAINAGES REGIME WILL ALLOW
MANY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR TO REACH
FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SEASON ON TUESDAY MORNING. FOR AREAS LIKELY TO RECEIVE FREEZING
CONDITIONS, NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN WINTERIZING YOUR OUTDOOR
AREAS BY COVERING PIPES AND PLANTS, AND PLANNING TO BRING POTTED
PLANTS AND PETS INDOORS ON MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND EACH DAY BEGINNING
TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES OVERHEAD. BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME, IT'S UNCLEAR GIVEN THE
DISAGREEMENT IN GLOBAL GUIDANCE WHETHER THIS EASTERN CONUS
TROUGHING LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH MORE CONSISTENT COLD FRONTS WILL
PERSIST OR WHETHER WE SEE A PATTERN FLIP TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE TO WARMER, AND MORE ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER BY MID-MONTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
FOG HAS LIFTED AND MAIN ISSUE IS LOW CLOUDS. SOME TERMINALS ARE IN
VFR STATUS BUT OTHER LIKE MCB AND HDC ARE DOWN TO IFR STATUS WITH
CIGS AROUND 800 FT. ELSEWHERE CIGS MAINLY RANGED JUST ABV 1K TO 4K
OVER MUCH OF SELA AND SW MS TO AROUND 5500-7K OVER COASTAL MS.
CIGS WILL RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AND ALL TERMINALS SHOULD BE
BACK IN VFR UNLESS THERE IS RAIN. RAIN DOESN'T LOOK AS FAVORABLE
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA TODAY AND MAINLY EAST OF
I-55. THIS COULD DROP VSBYS TO AROUND 4-5SM BUT OVERALL THE NEXT
REAL IMPACT WILL BE OVERNIGHT WHEN FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
/CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WE'LL ALSO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A COUPLE ISOLATED, WEAK STORMS ALONG THE COAST PRIMARILY DURING
THE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE, THEN DIMINISHING TOWARDS SUNSET. BY SUNDAY, A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH MARINE WATERS INTRODUCING STRONG
OFFSHORE/NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25-35 KNOTS,
ESPECIALLY FOR GULF WATERS, AND WAVES/SEAS RESPONDING TO AROUND 7-
12FT FOR 20-60NM ZONES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION
ALLOWING FOR WINDS AND WAVE/SEAS TO RELAX.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 60 81 56 / 30 10 10 30
BTR 83 62 83 60 / 20 10 10 30
ASD 79 60 81 60 / 30 0 0 20
MSY 83 65 83 64 / 30 10 0 10
GPT 77 63 79 64 / 30 10 0 10
PQL 79 60 80 60 / 30 10 0 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJS
LONG TERM....TJS
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...TJS
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