789
FXUS64 KLIX 072000
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 154 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- DENSE FOG PROBABILITY RELATIVELY HIGH FOR TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY MORNING,
MAIN ALONG INTERSTATE CORRIDORS IN LA.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR. NOW IS A GOOD TIME TO START WINTERIZING YOUR OUTDOOR
AREAS SUCH AS COVERING PIPES AND BEING PREPARED TO COVER PLANTS.
- HIGHER WINDS (20-30KT) AND SEAS (7-12FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 20NM
OR FARTHER OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS COMPLETELY SUPPRESSED UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
THAT WAS ALREADY PRETTY FLAT BY NOW. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS EAST TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES INDUCED BY THIS
UPPER TROUGH IS CREATING INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW STARTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE GULF BUT IS NOT COLUMN
UNIFORM MOISTURE INCREASE. AREAL OBS DO HOWEVER SHOW A SOLID 10
DEGREE JUMP IN DEWPOINTS AT THE SURFACE. THAT'LL PLAY INTO FOG
POTENTIAL TONIGHT. NBM PROBS AS WELL AS MAV/MET ALL POINT TOWARDS
DECENT CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST HOW
SHALLOW THE FOG IS, LIKE 100 FEET OR SO, PLUS 10-15 KNOT WINDS NOT
TOO HIGH OFF THE SURFACE. LEAVES ME WITH HESITATION TO ISSUE A FOG
ADVISORY RIGHT NOW.
RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN CONVECTION REALLY STRUGGLING.
SHOULD BE NO SURPRISE WITH PW'S NOT EVEN CLOSE TO 1.5". A STORM OR 2
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG/IN THE COASTAL AREAS BUT AM DOUBTFUL OF
REAL SEVERE POTENTIAL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY SO GIVEN LACK OF MOISTURE
AND TIME LIMITATION OF REMAINING SUNLIGHT. LESS SUBTLE CLUE IS LOW
AMPLITUDE GRAVITY WAVES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS LA AND MS. WHILE
NOT WHAT'LL SUPPRESS CONVECTION...DEFINITELY A SIGN OF THE EXISTENCE
OF STABLE LAYER ALOFT.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO THE NORTH WILL REALLY PUSH THE BASE OF IT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY.
THIS WILL DRIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO LA, REACHING THE CWA
PROBABLY AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SPARSE SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY, NOT THINKING THERE WILL
BE MUCH IF ANY IMPACTS LOCALLY.
BUT LIKE MOST COLD FRONTS THIS EARLY IN THE FALLS SEASON, ITS A ONCE
AND DONE COLD SNAP WITH TEMPS JUMPING 20 DEGREES OR SO IN A JUST 48
HRS.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
ALTHOUGH MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR ATTM, DOESN'T MEAN WITHOUT
IMPACTS. ITS BEEN SOMEWHAT BREEZING WITH GUSTS VARYING FROM 10 TO
20 MPH, THOUGH AT LEAST RELATIVELY CONSISTENT SOUTH DIRECTION.
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION BUT COVERAGE WILL
STEADILY DECREASE THIS EVENING. SHALLOW BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE FOR LIFR OR VLIFR VISIBILITIES TONIGHT AT
MOST TERMINALS.
MEFFER
6
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS DECENTLY ESTABLISHED WITH SURFACE RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. APPRECIABLE MARINE
IMPACTS DON'T COME UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING WHEN STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF
THE SEASON ROLLS THROUGH. EXPECT AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
ABOUT 24 HRS WITH SMALL WINDOW WHERE GALE WINDS OCCUR LATE SUNDAY.
ALL HEADLINES (NOT UP YET BUT WILL BE) DROP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
EVENTUAL ROTATION OF WINDS BACK TO ONSHORE AGAIN MID WEEK.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 81 56 66 / 10 10 30 10
BTR 62 83 60 70 / 0 10 20 10
ASD 60 80 60 72 / 0 0 20 10
MSY 65 83 65 74 / 0 0 20 10
GPT 62 79 62 73 / 0 0 20 10
PQL 60 80 60 74 / 0 0 20 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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