149
FXUS64 KLIX 082137
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
337 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 332 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. NOW IS
A GOOD TIME TO START WINTERIZING YOUR OUTDOOR AREAS SUCH AS COVERING
PIPES AND BEING PREPARED TO COVER PLANTS.
- HIGHER WINDS (20-30KT) AND SEAS (7-12FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 20NM OR
FARTHER OFFSHORE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
CURRENTLY ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW. AS ONE OF THE
IMPULSES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DIGS SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT WILL REALLY PUSH THE BASE OF IT SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
DRIVE AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD INTO LA, REACHING THE CWA PROBABLY
A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. CAMS AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, NOT THINKING THERE WILL BE MUCH IF ANY IMPACTS LOCALLY.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN BY ~1040MB SURFACE RIDGE WILL BRING
THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS FALL SEASON. LOOKING AT HIGHS AND LOWS
DROPPING AT LEAST 25 DEGREES FROM WHERE THEY AREA TODAY. WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING, WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. IT'S NOT UNTIL THE NEXT NIGHT, TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN POST
FRONTAL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD, THAT AIR TEMPERATURES REACH THEIR
COLDEST WITH THIS SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO FREEZING ALONG/NORTH OF I-12 CORRIDOR
IN LA, PLUS COASTAL AND SW MISSISSIPPI. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 30S
SOUTH OF THERE. THUS, CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THAT A FREEZE WARNING WILL
BE NEEDED.
BUT LIKE MOST COLD FRONTS THIS EARLY IN THE FALLS SEASON, ITS A ONCE
AND DONE COLD SNAP WITH TEMPS JUMPING 20 DEGREES OR SO IN A JUST 48
HRS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDWEEK,
MODERATING TEMPS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE
RELAXING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE COLD FRONT TOMORROW.
FALLING SURFACE WINDS ALONG WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS LIKELY TO LEAD TO
LOW CLOUD DECK AND/OR HAZY CONDITIONS FROM LIGHT FOG. TRIED TO
CAPTURE THAT POTENTIAL IMPACT WITH LATEST SET OF TAFS. NEXT UP FOR
IMPACTS COMES WITH FRONT BLASTING THROUGH ON SUNDAY. TIMING IS A BIT
EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY'S FORECAST...NOW INDICATING FROPA JUST BEFORE
TO RIGHT AT SUNRISE. POST FRONTAL WINDS TO BE STEADY 10-15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KNOTS. TERMINALS CLOSER TO MARINE AREAS
MORE LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KNOTS.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE AND BECOME
MORE VARIABLE AS PRESSURE FIELD WEAKENS DUE TO APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. PROBABLY SEE SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WINDS PICKUP LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT ACTUALLY GETS HERE. WHEN IT DOES THOUGH, HIGH END
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY. AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
WITH POTENTIAL NEED FOR SHORT TERM GALE LATE SUNDAY. A SURFACE HIGH
STARTS FILTERING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT WINDS AND CALMER
SEAS RETURN WITH IT.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 55 66 33 50 / 20 0 0 0
BTR 58 69 37 53 / 30 0 0 0
ASD 60 72 35 53 / 30 10 0 0
MSY 64 74 43 56 / 20 10 0 0
GPT 63 74 39 55 / 20 10 0 0
PQL 60 75 35 54 / 20 10 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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