267
FXUS64 KLIX 091150
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
550 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
- AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ON TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10/12 CORRIDOR. NOW IS
A GOOD TIME TO START WINTERIZING YOUR OUTDOOR AREAS SUCH AS COVERING
PIPES AND BEING PREPARED TO COVER PLANTS.
- HIGHER WINDS (20-30KT) AND SEAS (7-12FT) HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS
ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, WIND GUSTS
COULD APPROACH GALE-FORCE. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE 20NM OR
FARTHER OFFSHORE.
- A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20-25MPH AND RH BETWEEN 25-20
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON MONDAY. PLEASE BE
CAREFUL IF BURNING ON MONDAY, AND LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS IN
CASE ANY BURN BANS BECOME IN EFFECT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL PUSH DOWN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THIS MORNING. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 5AM AND NOON. THIS
TIMEFRAME IS UNFAVORABLE FOR STORMS, LEADING TO THE SCATTERED
COVERAGE AND LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LIKE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY NOON TODAY,
AND BEHIND IT, WINDS WILL BE GUSTY UP TO 25MPH IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, THE NBM25 WAS
BLENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT. BY DOING THIS, SCATTERED PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI COULD BRIEFLY REACH FREEZING FROM 7-8AM ON
MONDAY. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FREEZE WARNING,
BUT IT IS WORTH MENTION THAT POCKETS OF SW MS COULD BRIEFLY SEE
FREEZING CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING.
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STILL BE GOING
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, SO NBM25 WAS ALSO BLENDED FOR HIGHS THAT
DAY. THIS KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTING AROUND 20MPH DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.
THIS, COMBINED WITH DRY CONTINENTAL AIR FEATURING RH IN THE 25-30
PERCENT RANGE, WILL POSE AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK ON MONDAY. THERE IS
NO FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY YET, BUT THAT WILL BE CONSIDERED
ONCE WE REACH OUT TO THE LOUISIANA FORESTRY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING FROM THIS ARCTIC
STRETCH. SHORTWAVE RIDGING COMING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF THE ROCKIES
WILL FORM A SURFACE HIGH RIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP US EFFECTIVELY RADIATE
ON TOP OF THE ARCTIC AIR THAT WAS ADVECTED OVER US ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
PLUMMET THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND SOLIDLY REACH FREEZING ALL THE
WAY AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIVER PARISHES. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM WAS
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE, SO BLENDING IN THE 50TH PERCENTILE
BROUGHT THOSE FREEZING CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO THE RIVER
PARISHES. ALSO, SOME AREAS ALONG THE PASCAGOULA AND PEARL RIVER
BASINS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 25 DEGREES TUESDAY MORNING.
THAT AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON
TUESDAY AND BRING RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL ALLOW US
TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ON TUESDAY. RIDGING
LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, SO EXPECT US TO KEEP WARMING UP INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND ONWARD LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST SUN NOV 9 2025
A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD ONLY IMPACT
A FEW TERMINALS AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TEMPORARILY. CIGS WILL
BE AN ISSUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. THESE CIGS WILL LIFT RAPIDLY AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL THEN BEGIN TO RISE OUT OF THE NW AT AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH SOME WIND SHEAR EXPECTED OVER NIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS AT THE SFC WEAKEN TO AROUND 10KT COMPARED TO
WINDS AT 2KFT AROUND 40KT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS, BRINGING STRONG NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
BEHIND IT, WITH GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FROM MIDDAY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL ALSO PROMOTE 9-12 FEET WAVES IN OUR OUTER WATERS DURING
THAT SAME TIMEFRAME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT MIDDAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH STARTS FILTERING INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND LIGHT WINDS AND CALMER SEAS RETURN WITH
IT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 65 32 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 69 36 52 30 / 10 0 0 0
ASD 72 34 53 26 / 30 0 0 0
MSY 73 42 55 38 / 20 0 0 0
GPT 73 37 53 31 / 20 0 0 0
PQL 75 34 53 25 / 20 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-
575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-
577.
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM....JZ
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...JZ
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