065
FXUS64 KLIX 111811
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1211 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE
THREAT OF RADIATION FOG DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES ON THE BACK OF A
PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER MORE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWA,
PARTICULARLY RIVER DRAINAGES WHERE COOLING WILL BE GREATEST BOTH
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAT DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE LINGERING DRIER AIR
ALOFT COULD DISRUPT A FULL BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING AND LIMIT
THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST CONCERNS AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY MODIFY BACK TO NEAR AND
EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT
I DID USE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES FOR THE OVERNIGHT LOWS AS THE
AIRMASS STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS
DROPS THE TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE DETERMINISTIC
NBM OUTPUT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 70S BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE
AREA TODAY PULLS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A DEEP LAYER MID TO UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS RIDGING WILL REINFORCE THE VERY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR FURTHER WARMING OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THERE MAY BE SOME SCATTERED FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION THAT IS
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE WILL KEEP ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM
FORMING. AS A RESULT, POP HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
WITH READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S EACH
AFTERNOON. INCREASING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
WILL ALSO PUSH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS WILL BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WE
MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SOME LOW STRATUS COULD FORM AT THE
BASE OF AN ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION EACH MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY. ANY EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT INTO
THE SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AND OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS
CONSIDERABLY AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALL OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN
STREAM VORTICITY MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS, AND THERE
ARE SOME MODELS THAT START TO SHEAR OUT THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. THE END RESULT IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN RAIN
AND TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE OF THE CONUS, AND
THE MODELS WILL BEGIN TO PERFORM BETTER AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. GIVEN THE LARGE DEGREE OF
SPREAD IN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS, HAVE OPTED TO STICK WITH THE NBM
SOLUTION FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES A GOOD 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY AND ALSO INTRODUCES A 20 TO
30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A VERY DRY AND STABLE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
OVERALL, A VERY BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF.
A PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO ABOVE 15
KNOTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY CALM THIS
WEEK AT 2 FEET OR LESS. OVER THE WEEKEND, SEAS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS IN RESPONSE TO THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER GRADIENT FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 39 74 50 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 42 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 37 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 47 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 58 42 71 53 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 57 36 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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