427
FXUS64 KLIX 120543
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1143 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY.
- LATE IN THE, WEEK MORNING FOG MAY DEVELOP. SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM A DRY
NORTHWEST REGIME TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED,
AT LEAST IN MODEST TERMS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BEGIN TO FILTER BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO
KICKING OF A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY, AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND BACK ABOVE AVERAGE BY THURSDAY
WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES OVER THE REGION. WITH THE
MOISTURE STARTING TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND CONTINUED WEAK WINDS
AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS STARTING THURSDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
AGAIN THE PRIMARY STORY IS THE WARMING TREND. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
FRIDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE SOME FOG POTENTIAL WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUING TO FILTER IN MORE MOIST AIR. BEYOND THIS POINT,
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE A BIT AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS SLIGHTLY
TIGHTENS, SO RATHER THAN FOG WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW STRATUS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THE FLOW INCREASING AND
CONTINUED BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY FILTERING INTO THE REGION,
CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE STREAMER SHOWER WITHIN THE RICH LOW LEVEL
FLOW. THAT SAID, THE QPF SIGNAL WITHIN THE GLOBALS HAS REALLY
BACKED OFF OVER THE LAST FEW RUNS, SO TOOK OUT MENTION OF PRECIP
UNTIL THE START OF THE NEW WORKWEEK.
UPSTREAM, A WEAK FRONT TRIES TO NOSE SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR PERHAPS ON MONDAY. ONLY A SLIGHT QPF SIGNAL
WITH POPS VERY LIMITED. THIS FEATURE STALLS WITHIN THE NEARLY
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GLOBALS ARE
STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONT
EARLY TO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. TIMING AND PLACEMENT ARE AN ISSUE,
HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE...IF
NOT A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL LIKELY KEEP ANYTHING
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. OVERALL, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE LONG TERM. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.
(FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE.
OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 58 40 73 52 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 41 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 38 74 51 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 45 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 58 42 72 53 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 57 33 72 49 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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