637
FXUS64 KLIX 122318 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
518 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 512 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES STARTING
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING MID
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TEXAS WILL BE
THE MAIN FEATURE IMPACTING THE FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF SOUTH
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BUILDING
RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL ALSO
PROHIBIT ANY RAIN SHOWERS FROM FORMING AS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE CAPPED OFF BETWEEN 5 AND 10 THOUSAND FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ONLY MAJOR FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EACH NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE.
ADDITIONALLY, THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS BENEATH THE RIDGE WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY COOL EACH NIGHT. IN FACT, I HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH NBM 50TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED. THE
END RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW THE CRITICAL CROSS
OVER TEMPERATURE (THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE AT THE WARMEST PORTION
OF THE DAY) EACH NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN MORE INLAND LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS, AND THE FOG COULD TURN LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES.
THERE IS A DECENT PROBABILITY THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING ALLOWS FOR
INCREASED BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. BY THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER
70S AND LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON
ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
IS NOW NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A WEAKENING
SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MEANS
THAT THE WEEKEND WILL SEE A LONGWAVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BE
THE PRIMARY FEATURE DRIVING OUR WEATHER. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
WITH ONLY SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BENEATH A STRONG
MID-LEVEL INVERSION EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON. LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL ALSO BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. FOG
COULD STILL BE A CONCERN BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS, BUT I
HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FLOW PATTERN WILL TURN MORE
ZONAL AS THE WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE PLAINS
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE TAIL END OF THIS WEAK TROUGH AXIS
COULD SPARK OFF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN WARMER THAN
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AND
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S EACH DAY. ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS, BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER,
SOME MORNING STRATUS IS LIKELY TO FORM BENEATH AN ELEVATED
INVERSION EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MCB, BTR, HDC, AND HUM,
HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL IS A BIT WEAKER SO BUMPED VIS VALUES FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE A BIT TO HIGHLIGHT THIS CHANGE. OTHERWISE, ONCE
SUN RISES ON THURSDAY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THERE AFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS FAIRLY
CALM AT 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. OVERALL, NO
SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS TO MARINERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 49 77 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 51 77 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 48 77 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 55 76 57 76 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 52 74 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 48 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...PG
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