063
FXUS64 KLIX 130544
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1144 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE WARMING TREND HAS STARTED ACROSS THE CWFA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCES FOR FOG ARE INCREASING. STAT GUIDANCE
HAS COME DOWN AND BOUNCED SLIGHTLY BACK OVER THE LAST RUN OR TWO.
SREF PROBS WENT FROM 10 PERCENT UP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR 1 SM
FOG NORTH OF I10/12 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MS. THINK THE
CONSENSUS VIS GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH AREAS OF FOG
AROUND SUNRISE AS CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOW
FOR PROPER RADIATION. THERE IS A BIT BETTER SIGNAL GOING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH ELSE TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT
TERM. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBALS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN...OUTSIDE OF JUST
OFF THE DECK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HOLD UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS WE RESIDE ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM
MAKING ANY ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROGRESS TOWARD OUR REGION. AGAIN,
THE REGION STAYS MOSTLY DRY AS MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL
RESIDE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND STRUGGLE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD OUR REGION THANKS TO THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE GULF. SO,
AGAIN MAIN STORY IS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH MANY OF US REACHING THE 80S FOR SOME/MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
FOG OVERNIGHT FOR MCB, BTR, HDC, AND HUM, HOWEVER, THE SIGNAL IS A
BIT WEAKER SO ADJUSTED VIS VALUES TO REFLECT THESE CHANGE. MVFR?IFR
IS STILL LIKELY FOR THOSE TERMINALS REGARDLESS. OTHERWISE, ONCE
SUN RISES ON THURSDAY, FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY AROUND 14Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTHERLY
AND LIGHT THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE.
OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 73 51 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 75 53 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 74 50 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 74 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 71 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 71 49 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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