769
FXUS64 KLIX 131156
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
556 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND FRIDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
THE WARMING TREND HAS STARTED ACROSS THE CWFA. WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
HAS DEVELOPED AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE INCREASING AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. OUTSIDE
OF TEMPERATURES, THE CHANCES FOR FOG ARE INCREASING. STAT GUIDANCE
HAS COME DOWN AND BOUNCED SLIGHTLY BACK OVER THE LAST RUN OR TWO.
SREF PROBS WENT FROM 10 PERCENT UP TO NEAR 30 PERCENT FOR 1 SM
FOG NORTH OF I10/12 CORRIDOR, ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MS. THINK THE
CONSENSUS VIS GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH AREAS OF FOG
AROUND SUNRISE AS CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW ALLOW
FOR PROPER RADIATION. THERE IS A BIT BETTER SIGNAL GOING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH ELSE TO DISCUSS IN THE SHORT
TERM. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. GLOBALS
HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES, ESPECIALLY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION LEADING TO A MOSTLY DRY COLUMN...OUTSIDE OF JUST
OFF THE DECK. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
CONTINUATION OF THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE
TO HOLD UP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH AS WE RESIDE ON THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE H5 RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FRONT FROM
MAKING ANY ADDITIONAL FORWARD PROGRESS TOWARD OUR REGION. AGAIN,
THE REGION STAYS MOSTLY DRY AS MUCH OF THE UPPER SUPPORT WILL
RESIDE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND STRUGGLE TO AMPLIFY SOUTHEAST
TOWARD OUR REGION THANKS TO THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE GULF. SO,
AGAIN MAIN STORY IS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
WITH MANY OF US REACHING THE 80S FOR SOME/MOST OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
MOST TERMINALS ARE IN VFR BUT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ONE OR TWO OF
THEM MAY DROP DOWN IN CATEGORIES AS SHALLOW FOG OR POSSIBLY LOW
CLOUDS SET UP RIGHT AT SUNRISE. EVEN IF FOG DEVELOPS THIS WILL
LIKELY BE RIGHT AT THE ASOS SITE AND MOST OF THE AIRPORT WILL BE
FINE. IN ADDITION WHATEVER FOG DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL SET BACK UP. FOG MAY BE A
CONCERN TOMORROW MORNING BUT WE WILL NEED TO LOOK DEEPER INTO THIS
TODAY. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME ONSHORE.
OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 76 54 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 77 55 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 77 51 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 78 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 75 55 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 77 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...RDF
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