691
FXUS64 KLIX 131838
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1238 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES
TODAY. A BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL
KEEP INCREASING NEGATIVE VORTICITY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS IN, DRIER AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. STRONG MID-LEVEL WARMING WILL KEEP ANY RAIN SHOWERS
FROM FORMING AS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CAPPED OFF BETWEEN 5
AND 10 THOUSAND FEET EACH AFTERNOON. AT MOST, A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
A CONTINUED HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING TO OCCUR.
I HAVE CONTINUED TO GO WITH NBM 50TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES FOR
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO THE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.
AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER BECOMES DECOUPLED, PATCHY FOG WILL FORM IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND THE FOG COULD TURN LOCALLY DENSE AT
TIMES. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY BY THE MID- MORNING
HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE AND THE INVERSION WEAKENS. BY THE
AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 50S EACH NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED
TO SHEAR OUT AND WEAKEN DRAMATICALLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
STATES AND MIDWEST. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WEAKENING FEATURE AS
IT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST WILL BE WEAKEN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AND DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF ANY RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S AS DEWPOINTS SLOWLY RISE.
THIS GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED
PATCHY FOG OR LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS,
DEPENDING ON OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND STRENGTH. ANY LOW
STRATUS OR FOG WILL MIX OUT INTO A SCATTERED STRATO- CUMULUS FIELD
EACH DAY.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST
AND A DEEP LAYER ONSHORE FLOW REGIME WILL TAKE HOLD. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TO BOTH COOL AND MOISTEN, AND
OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. ADDITIONALLY, A BROAD REGION OF
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASINGLY
DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. FORCING LOOKS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PORTION
OF THE CWA, AND THIS IS ONLY THE REGION WHERE POP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN
LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A SURFACE BASED INVERSION TO DEVELOP, AND THIS
WILL SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. IFR OR
LOWER FOG AND STRATUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST GENERALLY BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z AT BTR, HDC, MCB, ASD, AND HUM AS THE INVERSION WILL
BE STRONGEST AT THESE TERMINALS. THE MORE COASTALLY INFLUENCED
TERMINALS OF GPT, MSY, AND NEW WILL SEE A WEAKER INVERSION AND FOG
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. AFTER 14Z, THE INVERSION WILL QUICKLY
MIX OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL TURN VFR AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VERY CALM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE
WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED. HEADING INTO
TUESDAY, THE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL TIGHTEN UP A BIT, BUT
WINDS WILL ONLY INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS MAY INCREASE TO 3
FEET IN THE OUTER GULF WATERS. OVERALL, NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO
MARITIME OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 52 78 51 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 54 78 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 50 77 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 54 74 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 49 76 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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