060
FXUS64 KLIX 140529
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1129 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
ALOFT, A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION AS WE
REMAIN ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF. THIS IN PART IS LEADING TO CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NOT ONLY OUR REGION, BUT ALSO MOST OF THE
CENTRAL US. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK RETURN FLOW CONTINUES AS THE
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. GRADUALLY
MORE AND MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION.
DESPITE THE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE SHORT TERM
WILL REMAIN DRY FROM A PRECIP PERSPECTIVE. WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RADIATIONAL FOG MAY DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND INTERIOR SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS INTO A MORE ZONAL OR
PROGRESSIVE FLOW. A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED...EVEN INTO MID AND LATE WEEK (NO COOL DOWN) EXPECTED.
THE ZONAL FLOW IS SHORT LIVED AS BROAD SCALE RIDGING TAKES PLACE
OVER THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS DOES ALLOW A MORE
ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. UPSTREAM A TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AMPLIFIES. THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE, HOWEVER, WINS
OUT FOR NOW KEEPING THE FRONT AND PARENT TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF OUR REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. GOING INTO
THURSDAY, ECM WANTS TO BRING THE FRONT THROUGH AND IS A BIT MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER GFS WHICH BY THURSDAY NIGHT HANGS THE
FRONT WEST OF THE SABINE RIVER. DESPITE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL
DISCREPANCIES, ONE QUICK NOTE ABOUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
WITHIN THE GLOBALS. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE A SETUP FOR AT LEAST
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. TIMING WILL BE KEY AND WE HAVE SEVERAL DAYS TO HURRY UP
AND WAIT, IF YOU WILL, AND MONITOR HOW MODELS EVENTUALLY EVOLVE
THE SYSTEM. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HOWEVER, VIS REDUCTIONS
WILL START TO BECOME APPARENT AS MORE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
HDC, BTR, MCB, HUM AND POSSIBLY GPT AND ASD AROUND SUNRISE GIVE OR
TAKE. OUTSIDE OF GPT, TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE LOW MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, THE
VIS ISSUES SHOULD MIX OUT AROUND MID TO LATE MORNING OR SO. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH A BIT OF A SOUTHERN
COMPONENT THROUGH THE CYCLE. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT WITH FAVORABLE
WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 77 54 77 52 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 78 55 78 54 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 77 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 75 58 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 74 54 75 54 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 76 49 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
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