258
FXUS64 KLIX 141951
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
151 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 149 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEK.
- TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG COULD DEVELOP. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, COVERS ALL BUT THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS FLOW PATTERN OVER THE NATION WON'T APPRECIABLY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THAT MEANS NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
POSSIBLY GRADUALLY MODERATING SLIGHTLY. THE BIGGER IMPACT FROM
WEATHER WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOWS
FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. IT'S CERTAINLY NOT A VERY
SIGNIFICANT INVERSION, BUT MORESO SUFFICIENT. BIGGER CONCERN IS
POTENTIAL COMPOUNDING EFFECT OF SMOKE WITH DENSE FOG SETUP. IT'S
BEEN SO DRY LATELY, D2 IN SOME AREAS NOW, THAT FIRES CAN MORE EASILY
START. 2 MARSH FIRES IN 2 DIFFERENT PARISHES RESULTED IN SHORT-TERM
SUPER FOG DEVELOPMENT. SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND PREEMPTIVELY ISSUE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT AND LIKELY NEED ONE EACH NIGHT THIS
WEEKEND.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST OF THE CWA WILL
FLATTEN AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT CAUGHT UNDER THAT RIDGE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. PWS STILL TOO LOW WITHOUT SUFFICIENT
KINEMATICS TO PRODUCE RAIN, BUT ITS A START. WON'T BE UNTIL LATER ON
IN THE WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST SUGGEST AT
LEAST A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ITS NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG ONE WHICH MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE. SO WHILE VFR WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST TIMEFRAME, PERIODS OF IFR TO VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EITHER
FROM SURFACE OR TREE TOP LEVEL FOG.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS/WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET. PROBABLY WON'T SEE
APPRECIABLE CHANGES UNTIL LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 53 77 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 55 80 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 52 76 54 78 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 57 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 54 74 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 50 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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