254
FXUS64 KLIX 151120
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
520 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP.
REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF YOU
ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING. SUPER FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE
NEAR ONGOING MARSH FIRES CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO DECREASE TO
NEAR ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ILLUSTRATES A CONTINUED RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN GULF AND CENTRAL US. THE RIDGE WILL PROMOTE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA. EVENTUALLY, THIS PATTERN
WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION GOING INTO SUNDAY. THE RIDGE FLATTENS
ALLOWING FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A SUBTLE RETURN
FLOW STILL POSITIONED OVER THE REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE, IT IS
ENOUGH TO KEEP A STEADY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE COLUMN WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE VERY LACKLUSTER
SURFACE FLOW, AND CLEAR SKIES...AND THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE RADIATION FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SIGNAL IS IN THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES. WHERE WE HAVE
ONGOING MARSH FIRES, SUPER FOG WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING FOR THE
ENTIRE CWFA. (FRYE)
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN ZONAL TO START THE NEW WORKWEEK. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND PERHAPS LOWER 80S WEST OF I55. AT THE
SURFACE THE HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY STARTS TO SPREAD EAST A BIT
ALLOWING FOR PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN A BIT INCREASING THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT OVERNIGHT FOG
CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS. AS THE FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE. WITH THE STRONGER RETURN FLOW AND MORE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE, GLOBALS DO HAVE A VERY WEAK QPF SIGNAL OVER THE OPEN
WATERS AND IMMEDIATE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A ROGUE STREAMER
SHOWER OR TWO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
GOING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, ANOTHER H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
GULF. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND BECOMES MODERATE
OVER THE REGION. UPSTREAM, A BROAD SCALE TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS. GLOBALS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE OVER THE
GULF BEGINS TO FLATTEN ALLOWING THE FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUPPORTS THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY OR MIDSOUTH AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH SPREADS NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW
WHAT SPECIFIC IMPACTS WE WILL HAVE LOCALLY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT
ACTUALLY APPEARS THE BETTER JET DYNAMICS AND SUPPORT WILL BE JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, BUT WITH PLENTY OF SHEAR AND AT LEAST
MODEST INSTABILITY AROUND A CONDITIONAL THREAT COULD EXIST
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. (FRYE)
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VIS AND SOME CIG ISSUES BRINGING LEVELS TO IFR AND LIFR THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL LIFT TO VFR RAPIDLY AFTER SUNRISE BUT ALL
TERMINALS COULD SEE THIS AGAIN TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START
OF NEXT WEEK. (FRYE)
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 78 55 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 80 57 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 76 54 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 79 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 74 57 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 76 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...RDF
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