617
FXUS64 KLIX 151906
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 104 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN US EAST
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER TROUGH SLIDING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL FLATTEN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
SOMEWHAT, BUT THIS WON'T CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO LOCAL A
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND. THAT MEANS NO RAIN
EXPECTED AND TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL, MODERATING SLIGHTLY GOING
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM WEATHER REMAINS TO BE FOG
POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION EVENING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CLEAR SKIES ALLOWS FOR MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING SHOWED THE INVERSION WAS
ONLY 500' DEEP. BOTH SHALLOWER AND STEEPER THAN GFSBUFR SHOWED FOR
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING IN FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND THUS STUNT FOG DEVELOPMENT. TAKING THAT INTO
CONSIDERATION AS WELL AS THE MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF FOG LAST
LIGHT, AM HESITANT TO PUT OUT DENSE FOG ADVISORY ATTM. WILL SAY
THOUGH THAT LOCAL RIVER BASINS ARE THE MOST LIKELY AREAS THAT FOG
WILL DEVELOP. SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SETUP REMAINS FOR POTENTIAL
OF COMPOUNDING EFFECT OF SMOKE WITH DENSE FOG AS IT'S BEEN SO DRY
LATELY.
MEFFER
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
MOVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN THE
RIDGE ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP,
NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL. WHAT WILL BE NOTICEABLE IS GRADUAL
WARMING EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY, COULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A DECENT CHANCE FOR RAIN
THURS/FRI TIMEFRAME AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PATH THE UPPER LOW TAKES AND HOW AMPLIFIED IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW, BUT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
MEFFER
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
BEFORE RELAXING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, LOW LEVEL TEMP INVERSION WILL
PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT. ITS NOT A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONG ONE WHICH MAY
LIMIT COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE. SO WHILE VFR WILL DOMINATE THE
FORECAST TIMEFRAME, PERIODS OF IFR TO VLIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE EITHER
FROM SURFACE OR TREE TOP LEVEL FOG.
MEFFER
MARINE
ISSUED AT 104 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AT AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS/WAVES LESS THAN 2 FEET. PROBABLY WON'T SEE
APPRECIABLE CHANGES UNTIL LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS DO
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS OVER MARINE AREAS.
MEFFER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 56 79 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 58 82 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 78 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 81 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 58 78 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 55 79 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...ME
MARINE...ME
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