184
FXUS64 KLIX 161123
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
523 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 520 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS. REMEMBER TO SLOW DOWN AND USE YOUR LOW
BEAM HEADLIGHTS IF YOU ENCOUNTER DENSE FOG WHILE DRIVING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
AT THE SURFACE WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO
THE EAST OF US DOMINATE THE PATTERN. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PAIRED WITH OUR AREA SITTING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY DRY IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION. THESE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO LAST THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW US
TO SEE WARMER CONDITIONS, WHICH WE ALREADY SAW A LITTLE OF
EARLIER SATURDAY. EACH DAY IS EXPECTED TO SEE AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS TONIGHT ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE
FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER IT IS LOOKING TO BE MORE PATCHY
THAN WIDESPREAD. WE LOOK TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN
GRADUALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT OUR
RADIATIONAL COOLING TO AN EXTENT. MODELS ARE HITTING AREAS NORTH
OF BATON ROUGE THE MOST AND EXPECT THE RIVER BASINS TO ALSO SEE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR THIS PATCHY DENSE FOG. REGARDLESS OF THIS, WITH
ONGOING FIRES IN THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN AND THAT LINING UP WITH THE
AREAS OF THE BEST FOG PROBABILITIES, THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED SUPER FOG IN THESE AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD, OUR UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOSTLY
FLATTENED OUT BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY, ONSHORE FLOW STARTS TO PICK UP TOWARDS MID
WEEK HELPING TO INCREASE OUR MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. OUR
WARMING TREND LOOKS TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY AS WE SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. IT IS
WORTH NOTING, BATON ROUGE HAS A HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORD
WEDNESDAY OF 86 SET IN 1903, OUR CURRENT FORECASTED HIGH IS 85.
WHILE THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FORECAST TO CHANGE,
THE FACT THAT OUR FORECAST IS SO CLOSE TO RECORD VALUES SHOWS HOW
UNSEASONABLY WARM WE WILL BE. CLIMATE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF
YEAR ARE IN THE LOW 70S, SO WE WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO EVEN
15 DEGREES ABOVE THAT.
LATER IN THE PERIOD OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION. A TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG DOWN THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SLIDE UP TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. GIVEN THIS IS LATE IN THE PERIOD THERE ARE STILL QUITE A BUR
OF UNCERTAINTIES, BUT AS OF NOW WE DO SEE A RAMP UP IN POPS IN THE
FORECAST WITH ~60% BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
IFR AND LIFR CIGS AND VIS WILL QUICKLY RISE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE
TODAY AT THOSE TERMINALS THAT ARE EXPERIENCING THESE CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF THE SAME TONIGHT AS NO REAL CHANGE
IN VARIABLES ARE OCCURRING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST US THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A CONTINUATION OF ONSHORE FLOW. OVERALL, THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
LIGHT WITH FAVORABLE WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF NEXT WEEK. PROGRESSING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WINDS AND
SEAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 80 57 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 82 58 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 79 55 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 82 61 80 62 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 78 58 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 79 55 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ037-039-
056>060-065>068-071-076-079>086-088-090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ070-071-
077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...TE
MARINE...HL
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