463
FXUS64 KLIX 162336
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
536 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS.
- RAIN THREAT RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THURS/FRI
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
EXTENDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE WEST AS LOCATIONS ALL
AROUND THE BATON ROUGE METRO HAS STARTED TO HAVE DENSE FOG
FORMATION. THE CITY OF BATON ROUGE MAY NOT HAVE DENSE FOG, BUT
DRIVING INTO THE CITY THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY HAVE AREAS OF DENSE
FOG SO WE HAVE INCLUDED THE CITY AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO WELL NORTH OF
MONTANA AND IS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AN
UPPER TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST
WILL FLATTEN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT, BUT THIS WON'T
CAUSE ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO LOCAL WEATHER. THAT MEANS CONTINUED
NO RAIN EXPECTED AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THE BIGGEST IMPACT FROM
WEATHER REMAINS TO BE FOG POTENTIAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOW
LEVEL INVERSION EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CLEAR SKIES
ALLOWS FOR MODEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE 12Z KLIX SOUNDING AGAIN
THIS MORNING SHOWED THE INVERSION WAS ONLY 500' DEEP. BOTH SHALLOWER
AND STEEPER THAN GFSBUFR SHOWED FOR THIS MORNING (AND TMR MORNING).
SURFACE AND BL WINDS ARE A FORECAST TO BE A BIT LIGHTER THAN THIS
MORNING, SO MAY GET A LITTLE HELP WITH FOG SETUP WITH THAT. LOCATION
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE LAST FEW DAYS
AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
MOVING THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEK, AN UPPER LOW IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TRACKS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
FLATTEN THE RIDGE ALOFT. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP, NOT EXPECTING MUCH AT ALL. WHAT WILL BE NOTICEABLE IS
GRADUAL WARMING EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY, AREAL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S, COULD BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW RECORD HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS IN TERMS OF
THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF LATE IN THE
WEEK AND UPPER LOWS THAT TRACK ALONG ITS NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY.
THEN, THE DEEPNESS OF THE UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS HAVE NOT BEEN
CONSISTENT EITHER. THAT'S RESULTED IN CHANGING LOCAL DYNAMICS AS
WELL AS IF ASSOCIATED FRONT EVEN MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THEREFORE,
STILL FEEL LIKE WE'LL SEE RAIN BUT LESS CONFIDENT BEYOND THAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
PREVAILING VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE REST
OF SUNDAY. FOG PROBABILITIES FOR MONDAY MORNING HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THROUGHOUT TODAY. FOG LOOKS LIKE IT COULD GET MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS, SO THE MAJORITY OF
TERMINALS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES IN THAT
TIMEFRAME JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE
AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW ORIENTED ONSHORE AND
FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. LATE WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST 15-20
KNOTS IN OPEN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SEAS 3-6 FEET.
MODEL CONSISTENCY FALLS OFF A BIT AFTER THAT. THE LAST FEW DAYS THEY
SUGGESTED A DECENT FROM COMING IN FROM THE WEST TO NW, NOW MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THIS WILL BE OPENING AND
FLATTENING OUT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER COLD FRONT THAT LAYS OVER AS IT
REACHES THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 57 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 77 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ME
LONG TERM....ME
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...ME
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