514
FXUS64 KLIX 170511
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1111 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
- PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DENSE FOG MONDAY POSSIBLE MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK.
- RAIN THREAT RETURNS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- POSSIBLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THURS/FRI.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE MAIN STORY OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NBM PROBABILITIES
CONTINUED TO RISE WITH EACH RUN, WITH A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA
SITTING WITH PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE ~40%.
ADDITIONALLY HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE
UPWARDS OF 60-70% FOR SOME AREAS, MAINLY WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
KNOWING ALL OF THIS, WENT WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 9AM MONDAY FOR ALL AREAS WEST OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.
OUTSIDE OF FOG CHANCES, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED TO
OUR EAST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RATHER QUIET THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALLOWS FOR WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATE NORMALS. PRECIPITATION IS NOWHERE TO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
THE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WON'T SEE MUCH CHANGE FROM THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD AS OUR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF US
CONTINUES TO HANG AROUND. WHILE YESTERDAY GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING OUR
UPPER LEVEL RIDING STARTING TO FLATTEN OUT BY WEDNESDAY, TODAY
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY SHOWING THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING SOME.
THIS HELPS WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH THE HOTTEST OF THE
WEEK, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING THE MID 80S.
BY THURSDAY WE SEE OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER TAKE SHAPE
OUT WEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
DESERT SW AND SLIDES UP TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
PRETTY ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE THE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DOES LOOK TO
HAVE A CHANCE TO SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA. THE GFS AND EURO ARE IN A
LITTLE DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS FRONT, BY A GOOD 24 HOURS.
SO KNOWING THAT, NOT GOING TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST
LATE IN THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS POPS STARTING TO
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND PEAK DURING THE DAY FRIDAY
AROUND 60-70%.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
PREVAILING VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS WHICH WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
REST OF SUNDAY. MULTIPLE GUIDANCE WITH GOOD PROBABILITIES OF
VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE MONDAY MORNING. FOG LOOKS LIKE IT
COULD GET MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHTS, SO THE
MAJORITY OF TERMINALS HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR IFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES IN THAT TIMEFRAME JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. FOG SHOULD
BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP FLOW ORIENTED ONSHORE AND FAIRLY
LIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. LATE WEEK, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER WEST TEXAS AND MOVES THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF AROUND 15-
20 KNOTS IN OPEN GULF WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH WOULD
SUBSEQUENTLY BRING SEAS TO 3-6 FEET. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN
THE GREATEST WITH THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, BUT REGARDLESS AN INCREASE
IN FLOW SEEMS LIKELY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 57 79 59 80 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 60 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 55 78 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 61 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 57 77 61 76 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 55 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MSZ068>071.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
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