128
FXUS64 KLIX 180132
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
732 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW UPDATE, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
CHECKING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AND AT THIS TIME WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADV. NOT SAYING WE WON'T
DENSE FOG TONIGHT BUT IT DOESN'T SEEM AS PROBABLE TONIGHT. FIRST
CONCERN IS THE CIRRUS COVER BUT THAT SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE AS THE
CLEARING LINE IS ALREADY A 3RD OF THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THE
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY NOT COOL ENOUGH. WITH THIS
STILL BEING A RADIATIONAL FOG SETUP/CONCERN ONE KEY TO LOOK AT
WILL BE THE CROSS-OVER TEMP WHICH IS AROUND 60-62. SO WE PROBABLY
NEED TO AT LEAST COOL TO 61 TO HAVE A REAL SHOT OF AREAS TO
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AND REALISTICALLY PROBABLY NEED TO GET DOWN
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO GET DECENT COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. THAT SAID
BY NO MEANS ARE WE SAYING WILL FOG NOT DEVELOP AND NOT SAYING
DENSE FOG WILL NOT DEVELOP AND TO BE HONEST IT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
IN PATCHES/ISOLATED AREAS AND MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS COULD BE THE
PEARL RIVER DRAINAGE AREA AND WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PARISHES AND
ALONG THE MS/AL BORDER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER IT CLOSELY
AND GET AN ADVISORY OUT QUICKLY AND HOPEFULLY BEFORE THE EVENING
NEWS CYCLE. /CAB/
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DAY TO DAY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A BROAD DEEP LAYER RIDGE
AXIS CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH READINGS RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
KEEP A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE, AND THIS WILL
PROHIBIT ANY RAINFALL FROM FORMING. HOWEVER, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A PERSISTENT LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW REGIME THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW LEVELS. AS A RESULT, SOME
SCATTERED STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.
THIS STRATO-CUMULUS WILL FORM AS AN EXTENSIVE MORNING FOG BANK
MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING EACH MORNING.
IN TERMS OF THE FOG THREAT, CONDITIONS ARE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS TONIGHT, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOG
PROBABILITIES REMAIN VERY HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE
IS ALSO HIGH THAT MORE FOG WILL FORM. THESE CONDITIONS INCLUDE,
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING,
LIGHT WINDS, AND THE HIGH LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY. THE FOG WILL TURN
DENSE AT TIMES, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
AGAIN FOR TOMORROW MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ANY BURNING
OF AGRICULTURAL FIELDS COULD PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED AREAS OF
SUPERFOG AND NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY EACH MORNING AS WELL.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
OVERALL ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS ON THE LOWER END AS MOVE INTO THE
LATTER PART OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS LENDS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. THURSDAY WILL BE A DAY
OF TRANSITION WITH STRONGER WINDS DEVELOPING AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON THURSDAY WITH READINGS EASILY
RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT WEAK REGION OF INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
FORM BENEATH AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
ADDITIONALLY, A PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE REGION
WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WITH FAVORABLE
FORCING PARAMETERS IN PLACE, SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
FORM THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE AREA. FORTUNATELY, DESPITE THE HIGH
PWATS, A HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL IS NOT IN PLACE DUE TO A LACK OF
DECENT THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND
TRANSIENT IN NATURE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE PRIMARY RAIN DAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS PASSES THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK AND LOW TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 90TH PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO A FEW BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE WEAKER STORMS THAT
FORM. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF SUSTAINED UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THE EVENT ON
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS ONCE
AGAIN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AS WINDS REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH.
WELL BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND OVERALL RAIN EVENT, THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD FIRE UP ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF, BUT THE
LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AT THE SAME TIME, SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
TAKE HOLD BEHIND THE FRONT. LOWS WILL REMAIN VERY MILD FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES COOLER ON
SATURDAY. THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT NOT QUITE
AS EXTREME AS THE TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, A SURGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL FEED INTO THE REGION
AND PWATS WILL FALL BACK TO THE NORMAL LEVELS SEEN FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. FURTHER DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND THE 25TH PERCENTILE AND THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS AS WE CLOSE OUT
THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT USHERS IN SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO MORE NORMAL READINGS FOR MID TO LATE
NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S. OVERALL, A FAIRLY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED ONCE THE
FRONT CLEARS THE REGION.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
STILL CONCERNED WITH DENSE FOG TONIGHT. CONDITIONS STILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO FORM AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS
BUT NOT TOO CONFIDENT IT WILL BE DENSE. THERE WAS A GOOD DECK OF
CIRRUS OVERHEAD BUT THAT IS CLEARING AND AT LEAST A 3RD OF THE
AREA HAS ALREADY CLEARED OUT. FOG DEVELOPED RATHER QUICK LAST
NIGHT BUT MAY TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME TERMINALS
TO START SHOWING REDUCTION IN VSBYS AROUND 5/6Z AND THEN EXPAND
ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY GET WORSE FOR TERMINALS ON THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. SOUTH MAY BE MORE OF A LOW CLOUD ISSUE BUT EVEN
SOME VSBY RESTRICTION WILL OCCUR. CONDITIONS WILL START TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTER 14Z BUT BY 15Z MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL AT
LEAST BE IN MVFR STATUS IF NOT VFR. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OF LESS THAN
10 KNOTS AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 2 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY THURSDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GULF
WATERS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS
OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
AND PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS. STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 25 KNOTS
WILL IMPACT THE OPEN GULF WATERS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 5 TO 7 FEET IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
WINDS. FORTUNATELY, A STRONG SURGE OF COLDER AIR WILL NOT
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, SO WINDS WILL WEAKEN BACK BELOW 15 KNOTS AS
THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 62 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 79 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 80 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 62 75 61 77 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 58 77 58 78 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
UPDATE: CAB
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...PG
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