198
FXUS64 KLIX 181135 AAA
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
535 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DUE TO STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
OVERALL ANOTHER WARM AND QUIET DAY WHILE THE EVENING HAS GENERALLY
BEEN QUIET AS WELL. BIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS
FOG. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG BUT
DENSE FOG MAY BE A LITTLE MORE PATCHY. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE COASTAL MS AND ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
DENSE FOG ADV WAS JUST ISSUED FOR COASTAL MS INCLUDING PEARL RIVER
BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FOR PORTIONS OF SELA AND PERHAPS SW
MS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOG IS STILL THE GREATEST CONCERN. FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO STRATO-CU BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. H925 TEMPS OF 16-18C WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S TODAY AND TOMORROW. AND THAT MAY ACTUALLY BE THE
BIGGEST NEGATIVE WITH RESPECT TO FOG, HOW MUCH WE ACTUALLY HEAT
UP. OTHER THAN THAT CONDITIONS LOOK QUITE GOOD FOR DECENT
RADIATIONAL FOG. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND RATHER HUMID BL CONDITIONS. ALL OF THIS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, THE ONE POSSIBLE
PROBLEM COULD BE THE OVERNIGHT LOWS. CAN WE COOL OFF ENOUGH. WE
APPEAR TO BE DOING THAT TONIGHT IN A FEW AREAS BUT AS MENTIONED IN
AN EARLIER DISCUSSION WE PROBABLY NEED TO GET TO THE UPPER 50S TO
REALLY GET AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 60S MOST AROUND 60 AND 61. THAT WOULD
FAVOR LOWS NEEDING TO GET TO AT LEAST THE LOWER 60S IF NOT UPPER
50S TO GET AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. THAT MAY BE THE ISSUE
AGAIN TONIGHT AS TEMPS MAY NOT GET MUCH BEYOND THE CROSS-OVER
TEMP. THE OTHER PROBLEM RIGHT NOW IS LL WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED
AND THAT APPEARS TO BE LEADING TO MORE4 STRATUS THAN FOG BUT IF
THOSE WINDS DIE DOWN JUST A TOUCH IT COULD EASILY FALL TO THE SFC
AS FOG. HOWEVER, THAT DOESN'T SEEM TO BE THE ISSUE TUESDAY
TONIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN THE LL AND
THAT WILL INCREASE THE DENSE FOG CONCERN. ALMOST ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH FOR FOG AND DENSE FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING FOR FOG.
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BE BULLISH FOR THAT
DAY AS WELL. AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY THINGS WILL BEGIN TO EVOLVE
SOME WITH A FEW WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY
MAY BE A TOUCH COOLER MAINLY THANKS TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER
AND A LITTLE OF A BREEZE. /CAB/
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND LESS AND LESS ACTIVE.
WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A RATHER IMPACTFUL END OF THE WEEK AND
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE WE MAY STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH
RAIN AT ALL. THAT SAID THIS ISN'T THE FIRST TIME THIS HAS HAPPENED
OVER THE LAST MONTH WE HAVE SEEN MODELS TARGET A DAY OR TWO
MULTIPLE TIMES ABOUT 6-7 DAYS OUT ONLY TO SEE THE SYSTEM COMING
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST DE-AMPLIFY AND STRUGGLE TO BRING US MUCH
RAIN. IT LOOKS LIKE ONCE AGAIN A SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS MUCH WEAKER THAN INITIALLY THOUGHT AND RIDE OVER
THE RIDGE BRINGING US MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH
A FRONT STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT MUCH THROUGH THE AREA.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS BETTER MID LVL SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. BUT THE FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL BACK TO THE WEST AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE LIMITED THUS MAYBE ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO TANK OVERNIGHT FRIDAY/EARLY
SATURDAY AS RIDGING QUICKLY STARTS TO REDEVELOP OVER TX AND INTO
THE LA. THE RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE BAJA SATURDAY MAY ONLY GET
INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS WEEKEND AND GOING INTO NEXT
WEEK. /CAB/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE COMMON THIS MORNING AS MOST TERMINALS ARE
EXPERIENCING DENSE FOG. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING LEADING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE LOW VIS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINALS ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCING
DENSE FOG CHANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. (FRYE)
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED, EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY, A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND TOWARDS THE COAST
SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
THE SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT WE MAY NEED HEADLINES THIS WEEKEND. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 79 60 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 83 61 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 79 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 82 63 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 77 60 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 79 58 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ034>037-
039-046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ530.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ068>071-
077-083>088.
GM...
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...CAB
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