885
FXUS64 KLIX 181749
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1149 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG LIKELY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST AND GULF. AT
THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS NEAR KANSAS CITY WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY INTO WEST TEXAS. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER VIRGINIA
AND THE CAROLINAS. THIS CONTINUED WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. EARLIER FOG HAS BURNED OFF WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND
80 DEGREES.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN GULF BY THURSDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA MOVES TO WEST TEXAS. THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THE SURFACE AIRFLOW BY THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY. THAT
MEANS THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE EARLY MORNING FOG. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS,
AND WINDS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM THE NEXT 2
NIGHTS, SEE NO REASON FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TO BE INHIBITED. WILL
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF FOG FOR THE NEXT 2 NIGHTS. HAVE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM MIDNIGHT CST TO 9 AM
CST TONIGHT. ANY AREAS NEAR AGRICULTURAL FIRES COULD SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERFOG, REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO.
ADVISORY PROBABLY NECESSARY TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL, BUT WILL CROSS
THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE, WITH HIGHS TOMORROW WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF RECORDS
AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE MAIN PORTION OF THE TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS THURSDAY WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BY FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAKER PORTION OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, BUT A PURE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY DURING THE EARLY OR MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FASTER OF THE TWO. WILL LET THE NBM NUMBERS RIDE FOR THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ANY SIGNIFICANT COOLING PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL
PERHAPS THANKSGIVING DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
MORE LOW CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINALS ONCE
AGAIN EXPERIENCING IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE 06Z-15Z TIME FRAME
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OUT OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION, BUT WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. THERE IS AT
LEAST SOME THREAT OF FOG OVER THE TIDAL LAKES AROUND SUNRISE THE
NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY A PRE-EMPTIVE MARINE FOG ADVISORY. ON FRIDAY, A SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING NEAR THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW
AND APPROACHING FRONT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WE MAY NEED
HEADLINES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 61 81 58 79 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 61 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 59 79 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 64 81 62 79 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 61 78 60 76 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 59 79 56 77 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY
FOR MSZ068>071-077-083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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