311
FXUS64 KLIX 190644
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1244 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1154 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND LIKELY AGAIN
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
FOG FOG FOG...THAT IS THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR MOST OF THE REGION AND WE HAVE
SEEN FOG DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH SCATTERED AREAS ALREADY SEEING DENSE
FOG. FOG WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND THERE SHOULD BE DENSE FOG
OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A NUMBER OF
FIRES OUT THERE TODAY...ALMOST ALL APPEARED TO BE SMALL AND
GENERALLY IN SECLUDED AREAS AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR POPULATION
CENTERS AND HIGHWAYS. HOWEVER EVEN ON SOME OF THESE BACK AND RURAL
ROADS EVEN A SMALL AREA OF REALLY DENSE FOG COULD BE A PROBLEM AS
A CAR MAY TURN ON TO A ROAD WHERE ONCOMING TRAFFIC WOULD NOT SEE
IT. THIS FOG SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AGAIN LIKE IT HAS THE LAST
FEW DAYS AS WE QUICKLY HEAT UP.
AS FOR THE FORECAST TODAY IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM ONE AND HIGHS
COULD APPROACH THE MID 80S IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THIS COULD TEST
RECORDS AT A FEW SITES. OTHER THAN THAT NOTHING ELSE TO REALLY
TALK ABOUT TODAY. LL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCH UP AND WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 60S AGAIN LIKE YESTERDAY PROVIDING A
CROSS-OVER TEMP AROUND 63-64. WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A REAL GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL
SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AGAIN WITH DENSE FOG AND A DENSE FOG ADV WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.
RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO GET SUPPRESSED SOME AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM THIS TO PUSHES TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT ONLY
SOME. IT WILL STILL DOMINATE THE REGION THURSDAY LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARM DAY. A INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP US A
DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS ABOUT IT.
THE PROBLEM THOUGH IS THAT THE RIDGE DOESN'T GET SUPPRESSED ENOUGH
AND THE SYSTEM STARTS TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NNE ON THE THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
/CAB/
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY. OUR SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL ACTUALLY START TO OPEN UP AND LIFT NNE ON THE THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE GULF RIDGE
DOESN'T GET SUPPRESSED ENOUGH. THIS WILL LEAD THAT SFC LOW ON
FRIDAY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND THEN OH VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL NOW REALLY
STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA TILL
POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
HELP BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA WHILE COASTAL SELA MAY ONLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY AS RIDING STARTS TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL REALLY STRUGGLE TO PUSH SOUTH SATURDAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND LIKELY WILL NEVER MAKE THE COAST.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE KEEPING THE
REGION WARM WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AT BEST HOWEVER HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS. THIS COULD
BRING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. /CAB/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IMPACTS THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG IMPACT THE AREA. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MCB AND BTR ALL
TERMINALS ARE ALREADY DEALING WITH IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS. FOG
IS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AND VSBYS OF 1/2 OR LOWER ARE EXPECTED.
BOTH VSBYS AND CIGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 15Z. /CAB/
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE A LITTLE FARTHER EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO INCREASE A TOUCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK FRONT THAT WILL LIKELY NOT EVEN REACH THE COAST ON SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD KEEP LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE REGION HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADV
CRITERIA WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. /CAB/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 60 81 59 78 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 62 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 58 80 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
MSY 63 82 63 80 / 0 0 0 0
GPT 61 78 60 75 / 0 0 0 0
PQL 59 80 57 77 / 0 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064-065-070-071-076>090.
GM...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
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