832
FXUS64 KLIX 191738
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1138 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG LIKELY AGAIN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY MORNING.
- A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE GULF NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDED FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR
INTERSTATE 40.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS BY
FRIDAY, BUT THE MAIN FORCING WILL BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
OUR AREA. WHILE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
TO THE EAST, IT WILL STILL EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA TO
KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE POPS ARE IN THE 40-50 RANGE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, RAIN AMOUNTS MIGHT NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN 0.10-0.25 INCH AT
BEST IN AREAS IT DOES RAIN.
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS AT WHAT POINT WILL THERE BE
ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT OR WARM ENOUGH TEMPERATURES TO PRECLUDE
DENSE FOG. IF THERE IS AN AREA WHERE THAT IS THE CASE, IT WOULD BE
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. WILL GO WITH A PRE-EMMPTIVE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST
AND ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BASIN ISN'T AS STRONG, AND DIDN'T INCLUDE
THOSE AREAS FOR NOW. WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS AND STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS, AS WELL AS POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION, SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT.
HIGHS THURSDAY AGAIN UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WHICH WILL PUT SOME AREAS
VERY CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S
TONIGHT, AND PUSHING 70 TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY, BUT NEARBY SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. ONCE AGAIN, RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN 0.25 INCH.
RAIN CHANCES CAN'T BE TOTALLY PRECLUDED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WARM
WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THE NEXT PRECIPITATION THREAT WILL BE
WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF HAS BEEN SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS BY ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE NBM NUMBERS ARE A DECENT COMPROMISE, AND
ONCE AGAIN, THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A DROUGHT BREAKING
PRECIPITATION EVENT. MAY BE AN ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS ONE
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT OR SO, BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAS TEASES US
BEFORE. ANY SIGNIFICANTLY COOL AIR DOESN'T LOOK LIKELY PRIOR TO
AFTER THANKSGIVING, AND THAT MIGHT ONLY BE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
MAY BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH
BASES JUST BELOW FL030. THOSE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AT MOST OR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 06Z, WITH CONDITIONS BELOW FIELD MINIMA NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT MOST. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE MORNINGS,
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR GREATER PROBABLY WON'T OCCUR UNTIL 15Z-16Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CENTERED EAST OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. ONE MORE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OR MOST OF THE TIDAL LAKES AND
SOUNDS. CONSIDERING THE AREAL COVERAGE WE HAD THIS MORNING, AND NO
CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS, HAVE ISSUED A PRE-EMPTIVE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE PROTECTED WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH 16Z
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING NEAR THE AREA
LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SLIGHTLY STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE LOW AND APPROACHING FRONT
FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAY NEED A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES FOR THE OUTER WATERS, BUT DO NOT
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 59 78 63 79 / 0 0 40 80
BTR 62 80 65 83 / 0 0 40 70
ASD 58 77 62 78 / 0 0 20 70
MSY 63 80 68 82 / 0 0 30 60
GPT 61 75 63 77 / 0 0 10 50
PQL 57 77 60 79 / 0 0 10 40
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ036-037-039-048-057-058-060-064-070-071-076>087-089.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ530-532-534-536-538.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ069>071-077-083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ532-534-536-538.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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