758
FXUS64 KLIX 220522
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1122 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1013 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- FOG POTENTIAL RETURNS SATURDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN
DROPPING TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
40S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EARLY SATURDAY. PROBABILITIES ACROSS SEVERAL
MODELS ARE RATHER HIGH, LEADING TO THE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF LATER
SATURDAY MORNING MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER UNEVENTFUL.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS, IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH AND STALLS NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S
FOR MOST AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP TO OUR NORTH, MAKING FOR A QUIET SUNDAY.
THE FRONT FROM SATURDAY EVENING DOES BRING MORE PLEASANT HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FORECAST.
EARLY MORNING LOWS WILL ALSO BE A TOUCH COOLER, IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
THE MAJORITY OF MONDAY WILL BE MUCH OF THE SAME AS SUNDAY WITH
THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL LINGERING NORTH OF US. HOWEVER, A
DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S WILL PUSH THIS HIGH PRESSURE
EASTWARD AND ATTEMPT TO BREAK OUR PATTERN. WHILE THE TROUGH WILL
SLIDE UP TOWARDS THE MIDWEST, THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT ALONG
WITH IT THAT WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA LATE MONDAY. THIS GRADUALLY
INCREASES POPS, WHICH PEAK TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT AND LEAVE US WITH A DRY
THANKSGIVING DAY.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE CLIMATE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH WHICH
COOLS THE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO ID 70S. THANKSGIVING
DAY WILL HAVE EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE FRONT FULLY
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. EARLY MORNING
LOWS THANKSGIVING MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY COOL IN THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
PREVAILING VFR AT MOST TERMINALS TONIGHT, BUT WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE SOME ALREADY HAVING LOW VIS ISSUES. HEADING INTO THE EARLY
THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY DENSE FOG PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THIS DENSE FOG EXPECT IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
AND VIS AT MOST TERMINALS BY EARLY MORNING. FOG SHOULD BURN OFF A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1013 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
WINDS WILL CALM OVER THE WEEKEND TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES MORE DOMINANT OVER THE
WATERS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH WINDS AND SEAS
HIGHER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BACK
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS
AS THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE WEDNESDAY , WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH UP AROUND
15-20KTS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF DENSE FOG OVER SOME
AREAS SATURDAY MORNING AND SUBSEQUENTLY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE LAKES, SOUNDS, AND EASTERN NEAR WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 78 51 73 / 10 10 0 0
BTR 67 81 54 76 / 10 20 0 0
ASD 63 81 55 76 / 10 10 0 0
MSY 67 82 61 77 / 0 20 0 0
GPT 64 80 58 76 / 10 10 0 0
PQL 62 81 55 77 / 10 10 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ034>037-039-
046>048-056>060-064>071-076>090.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-557.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ068>071-077-
083>088.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-557.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
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