765
FXUS64 KLIX 221747
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1147 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, TO NEAR NORMAL, FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER
MISSOURI AT MID-MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF LOS ANGELES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR CWA,
FROM BROOKHAVEN TO NEAR OPELOUSAS AND LAKE CHARLES. THERE WERE
ONE OR TWO SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN BATON ROUGE AND
LAFAYETTE. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AT LATE
MORNING WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. DEW POINTS
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROP OFF ABOUT 10
DEGREES.
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, AND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, BUT EVEN 20 PERCENT COVERAGE LOOKS LIKE OVERKILL.
AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA TOMORROW.
WHILE THE AIRMASS WILL HAVE SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH IT, THAT'LL BE BALANCED OUT TOMORROW BY ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO
LIKELY PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S, STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE WEST COAST TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY
MONDAY, THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA BY THAT POINT. THE
UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY.
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE GREAT
LAKES WILL PUSH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN (COMPARED
TO THE CURRENT FRONT) MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WE'LL
HAVE TO MONITOR THAT SYSTEM A LITTLE, AS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH THE
MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
NORTH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES, IT SHOULD
REINFORCE THE FRONT AND PUSH IT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING DRIER AND CONSIDERABLY COOLER AIR TO THE AREA FOR
THANKSGIVING AND THE WEEKEND. EVEN WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY COOL DOWN TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE
NOVEMBER DURING THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS WEEKEND, AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 54 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 54 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 61 77 60 79 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 58 77 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 55 77 51 77 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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