783
FXUS64 KLIX 230442
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1042 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 943 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, TO NEAR NORMAL, FOR THANKSGIVING DAY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM WILL REMAIN UNEVENTFUL AS A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP TO OUR NORTH, DOMINATING THE
PATTERN. SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES A TOUCH COOLER THAN WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS REACHING THE LOW TO MID
70S FOR MOST AREAS. THIS IS THANKS TO THE WEAK FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA AT SNAILS PACE AND
SHOULD STALL SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO THE COAST.
MONDAY WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE AREA AS OUR NORTHERLY WINDS FROM SUNDAY ARE GONE BY
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AND START TO BRING EVEN
MORE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. WITH
THIS MOISTURE PUMPING IN, WE SEE POPS START TO JUMP UP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS COMES AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SWEEPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING ALONG WITH
IT. WHILE WE WON'T SEE THE TEMPERATURE ASPECTS OF THIS FRONT
UNTIL LATER, WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
BY MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR WESTERN AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
TUESDAY IS WHEN WE ARE FORECASTED TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST PERIOD. POPS PEAK
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, PRETTY HIGH FOR NORTHERN AREAS WITH ~80-90%
FOR SW MS DOWN TOWARDS BATON ROUGE. AROUND THE LAKE AN COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI ARE SITTING WITH POPS ~50-60% AND FINALLY COASTAL
AREAS ARE THE LOWEST AROUND 30-40%. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD
END UP ON THE STRONGER SIDE WITH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN
WE HAVE HAD IN A WHILE. THIS ALL COMES AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOOTS OUT OF THE DESERT SW AND SLIDES UP TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AND
EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS CHANGES THE OVERALL PATTERN IN GENERAL AS WE SEE
BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.
FOR THE TEMPERATURES ASPECTS TO THIS SYSTEM, THE FRONT LOOKS TO
COME THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND EXITING
THE COAST BY EARLY THURSDAY. THIS BRINGS COOLDOWN FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS ALREADY ON WEDNESDAY, DOWN INTO THE LOW 70S AND OUR
THANKSGIVING DAY WILL BE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. EARLY MORNING
LOWS WILL BE THE COOLEST THEY HAVE BEEN IN A WHILE, DOWN INTO THE
LOW 40S TO LOW 50S. FRIDAY MORNING LOOKING TO BE EVEN COOLER, DOWN
INTO THE 30S FOR SOME NORTHERN AREAS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS AND THIS SHOULD HOLD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW AREAS ARE SEEING SOME LOW STRATUS,
WHICH IS IMPACTING HUM, BUT THIS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. LIGHT WINDS AND JUST SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THIS WEEKEND, AS
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF BECOMES MORE DOMINANT
OVER THE WATERS. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH WINDS
AND SEAS HIGHER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
BACK INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE OVER THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. AFTER A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH TO AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 72 52 77 / 0 0 0 10
BTR 54 76 55 79 / 0 0 0 20
ASD 54 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 61 77 60 79 / 10 0 0 10
GPT 58 77 55 76 / 10 0 0 0
PQL 55 77 51 77 / 10 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HL
LONG TERM....HL
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...HL
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