337
FXUS64 KLIX 231801
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1201 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN, TO NEAR NORMAL, FOR THANKSGIVING DAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER NEW ENGLAND
AND A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER ARIZONA. AT THE SURFACE, A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR TULSA. COLD ADVECTION CLOUD COVER WAS OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WITH THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATE MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S, ALTHOUGH MCCOMB WAS AT 57 AT 11 AM CST,
DUE TO LOW CLOUDS REMAINING OVER THE AREA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO NEAR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ARIZONA UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO KANSAS AT THAT TIME. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN ONSHORE DURING
THE DAY TOMORROW, LIFTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH
AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR THE
25TH PERCENTILE TODAY (0.55 INCHES) WILL INCREASE TO NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE (1.6 INCHES) BY SUNSET MONDAY. WHILE WE SHOULD
START TO SEE HIGHER CLOUDS TONIGHT, LOWER CLOUDS PROBABLY WON'T
ONSET UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WE'RE UNLIKELY TO SEE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY, AND THE LOWER CLOUDS PROBABLY
WILL NOT ARRIVE SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING 80 DEGREES AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE A MARGINAL THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM VERY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL LIFT
QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF WINDOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
PARAMETERS COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BEFORE THE LOW LEVEL JET
PULLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. MUCAPE VALUES BRIEFLY REACH
1000 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7C/KM, WITH SRH
VALUES NEAR 200 BEFORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STARTS DIMINISHING
AGAIN. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AS EARLY AS PERHAPS MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANY THREAT OF DEEPER CONVECTION PROBABLY WOULD BE IN
THE 09Z-18Z TIME FRAME TUESDAY.
HOPES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AREN'T PARTICULARLY HIGH, AND AT THIS
POINT, RAINFALL WOULD ACTUALLY BE HELPFUL. JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA
HAS SEEN LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN IN NOVEMBER. FORECAST RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN AN INCH IN OUR AREA, AND IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN DRY.
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY NIGHT, WHEN MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVES. DEW POINTS THAT
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S BY
THANKSGIVING DAY ACROSS MOST OR ALL OF THE AREA. WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND NORTHERLY WINDS,
TEMPERATURES COULD STILL GET INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS, BUT HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN TOMORROW AND TUESDAY.
THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, BUT FORECAST TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE A BIT ON
THE COOL SIDE WITH THE USUALLY COOLER SPOTS PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE
30S.
THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY, AND AS
THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, ONSHORE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY PULL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BACK TO OUR NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. COULD SEE THE THREAT FOR RAIN RETURN AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
MOST TERMINALS AT VFR AND LIKELY TO REMAIN THERE FORE THE
FORECASTS PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THAT IS AT KMCB, WHERE COLD
ADVECTION CLOUDS HAVE HELD IFR CLOUDS IN PLACE ALL MORNING. NOT
EVEN CONFIDENT THAT KMCB WILL IMPROVE BEYOND MVFR CEILINGS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT IF IT OCCURS, IT MIGHT BE CLOSE TO SUNSET. WHILE
MOST GUIDANCE NOT CATCHING THIS WELL, RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS COULD REMAIN THERE MOST OR ALL NIGHT.
THIS MAY REQUIRE FUTURE AMENDMENTS AT THAT PARTICULAR TERMINAL,
WITH A NON-ZERO THREAT AT KHDC AND KASD. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNING AT
MID-MORNING MONDAY SHOULD MIX OUT ANY LOWER CONDITIONS, WITH AT
LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS. MOISTURE LEVELS LIKELY TO
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON MONDAY. ANY TSRA UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP UNTIL BEYOND 03Z
TUESDAY AND MORE LIKELY BEYOND 06Z TUESDAY AT KMCB/KBTR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS, AND WE MAY NEED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES BY
VERY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT OVER SOME OF THE OUTER
WATERS. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS VERY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE PROTECTED WATERS.
A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS, PERHAPS REQUIRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES, IS EXPECTED BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 77 64 77 / 0 10 70 90
BTR 55 81 66 81 / 0 20 60 80
ASD 52 78 64 80 / 0 10 40 70
MSY 60 81 69 83 / 0 10 40 60
GPT 55 76 66 78 / 0 10 30 60
PQL 51 78 63 79 / 0 0 20 50
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...RW
MARINE...RW
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