872
FXUS64 KLIX 241833
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1233 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1230 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (LEVEL 1-2 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS.
IF ANY STORMS BECOME SEVERE, THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WHICH CAN RESULT IN DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND POWER
OUTAGES AS WELL AS MINOR DAMAGE TO SOME STRUCTURES.
- A MAJOR COOL DOWN WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-10/12
CORRIDOR. A FEW PLACES COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING - MAINLY
ACROSS SW MS, AND WITHIN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGE
AREAS.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, GRADUALLY FLATTENING AS IT
DOES SO. THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY
STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A CONFLUENCE ZONE STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL ALSO
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT BUT WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS
SUPPORT AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. NOT ONLY WILL IT BE
APPROACHING OVERNIGHT WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF DAYTIME HEATING, THE
UPPER TROUGH DRIVING IT EASTWARD WILL START TO FLATTEN AND LIFT
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A STRENGTHENING
850MB JET WILL PASS OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, SO THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT CANNOT BE IGNORED. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE MODEST CAPE (AROUND 1000 J/KG
IN SOME AREAS) AND SHEAR AS THE STORMS APPROACH, SO ANY STORMS
THAT DO MAKE IT INTO THE LOCAL AREA WILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.
THIS FIRST WAVE OF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO DIE OUT BY MID MORNING
TUESDAY, WITH A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME, THE 850MB JET WILL
HAVE PULLED AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA, AND CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. WHILE ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT,
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE LONGER WAVE UPPER TROUGH FINALLY PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
AIR MOVING IN BEHIND IT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
COLDER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO DROP WELL BELOW NORMAL SETTING UP FOR A
COOL THANKSGIVING DAY. MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH, WITH HIGHS ONLY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS, AND IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING CONDITIONS
IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE NBM HAS NOT BEEN SO BULLISH, BUT
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE DETERMINISTIC NBM IS ONE OF THE WARMEST
SOLUTIONS, WITH ITS FORECAST LOWS SITTING AROUND OR ABOVE ITS OWN
75TH PERCENTILE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
AREA. WITH THAT BEING SAID, HAVE MADE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS
NUDGING TOWARD THE 50TH PERCENTILE ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG/EAST OF I-55 AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-10/12.
CURRENT FORECAST WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING
EVERYWHERE, BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY AND AN HOUR
OR TWO OF TEMPERATURES NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT - ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND THROUGH THE
PEARL AND PASCAGOULA DRAINAGE AREAS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
GREATEST THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS, BUT OVERALL CHANCES REALLY ONLY JUSTIFY PROB30 GROUPS.
MAIN TIMING WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A SECOND
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS COULD REDEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CST MON NOV 24 2025
A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE COAST WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO
CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN AND EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA IN ITS WAKE. THE COMBINATION OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS, AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK, WINDS WILL EASE AND
TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 64 78 52 65 / 60 60 20 0
BTR 67 80 54 68 / 50 50 20 0
ASD 65 81 55 70 / 30 40 20 10
MSY 69 83 60 72 / 30 30 20 10
GPT 66 78 59 72 / 30 40 30 10
PQL 62 80 57 73 / 30 40 40 10
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DM
LONG TERM....DM
AVIATION...DM
MARINE...DM
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