686
FXUS64 KLIX 252346
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
546 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THURS AND FRI WITH MORNING TEMPS IN THE
30S AND 40S. A FEW PLACES COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH FREEZING ACROSS
SW MS, AND WITHIN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH THE ENTIRE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE QUIET OVERALL AND COLD ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM THANKS TO ENHANCED COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNINGS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY OVERALL, SO GENERALLY A PLEASANT FEW DAYS AHEAD IF A BIT COLD.
MSW
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH
CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. LOWS ON FRIDAY WILL BE
PARTICULARLY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE AREA
NORTH OF I-12. WE LOWERED THESE TEMPERATURES 3-4 DEGREES FROM NBM
TO ENCOMPASS ENHANCED COOLING OVERNIGHT FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION
WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE DRAINAGE BASINS AND THE TYPICAL
OVERACHIEVING COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE SECOND DAY AFTER A FRONT,
WHICH COMMONLY OCCURS IN OUR AREA. LOWS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
40S, AS WE START TO WARM UP A BIT AGAIN. HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S AS WE REINTRODUCE MOISUTRE
BACK INTO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. IT LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST AND PROGRESSIVE. GENERAL
TIMING WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE MORNING AND DAYTIME HOURS ON
SUNDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT A LOT COULD CHANGE GIVEN IT IS SO FAR OUT IN TIME. WE WILL
KEEP MONITORING FOR CHANGES. MSW
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, AND THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CONCERNS ARE NOT SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND EASTWARD
INTO ALABAMA AND FLORIDA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE, AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD EXCEED 12
KNOTS AT THE MORE COASTAL INFLUENCED TERMINALS OF MSY, NEW, AND
GPT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
CONCERNS TO AVIATORS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS DEEPENING COMMA LOW ROLLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE COMBINATION OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE RELATIVELY
WARM WATERS, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY THURSDAY. AS THE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE AREA LATER IN
THE WEEK, WINDS WILL EASE AND TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 53 69 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 53 70 38 63 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 59 71 47 64 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 56 71 42 62 / 20 0 0 0
PQL 54 72 37 62 / 30 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...MSW
LONG TERM....MSW
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...MSW
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