829
FXUS64 KLIX 260605
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1205 AM CST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
- A SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. A FEW PLACES COULD BRIEFLY
TOUCH FREEZING ACROSS SW MS, AND WITHIN THE PEARL AND PASCAGOULA
RIVER DRAINAGE AREAS.
- HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.
- RAIN THREAT INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
RAIN COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE IMPACTING THE GULF SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ON FRIDAY AND A MORE ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE HOLD. THE REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED BENEATH
A DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME TODAY AND TOMORROW, AND THIS
WILL USHER IN BOTH A VERY DRY AND SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A REVIEW OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS INDICATES THAT PWATS WILL RUN
BETWEEN 0.20 AND 0.30 INCHES, OR BETWEEN THE MINIMUM AND 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP SKIES
CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A LARGER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE. ALTHOUGH A 925MB THERMAL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE REGION, DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB
TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A GOOD 30 TO
35 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
WINDS RELAX AND STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING BENEATH THOSE CLEAR
SKIES OCCURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL EASILY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE UPPER 40S IN METRO NEW
ORLEANS AND ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAYS OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS THE HEART OF THE THERMAL
TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S OR 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THIS COOLER START WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO RAPIDLY COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S OVER INLAND AREAS
AND THE LOWER 40S SOUTH OF THE LAKE AND ALONG THE COAST.
WIDESPREAD FROST AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FREEZE IN THE
PEARL AND PASCAGOULA RIVER DRAINAGES IS PROBABLE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS THAT BEGINS TO
TAKE SHAPE ON FRIDAY WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PATTERN IN PLACE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SPREAD BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS WE
MOVE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A
NEARLY 20 TO 25 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IF A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS ABLE TO CLEAR THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF
THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY FALL BACK
BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT STAYS TO THE NORTH, A MUCH
WARMER AND STORMIER PATTERN COULD EMERGE NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, THE BEST OPTION WAS TO
STICK WITH THE ENSEMBLE NBM SOLUTION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE LATEST MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND PASS THROUGH THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY A SURGE OF
PACIFIC BASED MOISTURE WILL FEED INTO THE REGION. ADDITIONAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FURTHER DEEPEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE POOL AND PWATS WILL
RISE TO BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES OR THE 75TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THESE VERY HIGH VALUES
WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY
WILL BE LARGELY ELEVATED AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED, ENOUGH FORCING WILL
BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL, A VERY GRAY
AND RAINY DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. RAINFALL COULD BE LOCALLY
HEAVY AT TIMES, AND RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 2 TO 3
INCHES IN A FEW LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THIS WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND TO THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASED MOISTURE. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE ON IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S THIS WEEKEND, BUT THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL
KEEP LOWS WARMER THAN AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER TROUGH IMPACTING THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT CONTINUED HIGHER THAN
AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON THESE DAYS. HOWEVER, THAT IS
THE ONLY AREA WHERE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST AVERAGE FOR
THE DAY 6 AND 7 PERIOD. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DETERMINISTIC NBM OUTPUT WAS
USED TO PRODUCE THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3
HOURS AT A FEW MORE COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING HUM, ASD, AND GPT
RIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DRY AIR SURGE AS TEMPERATURES COOLED TO THE
DEWPOINT. THE CEILINGS AND FOG WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE, AND THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS FROM 08Z ONWARD.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT NEW, GPT, HUM, AND MSY AS A COOLER AIRMASS
ADVECTS OVER THE WARMER NEARSHORE WATERS. PG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
A COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS COLDER AND DRIER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE WARMER
WATERS, STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSPORT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. AS
A RESULT, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
DUE TO NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR GREATER AND ROUGH SEAS OF
OVER 7 FEET WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
RELAX SLIGHTLY TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KNOTS AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 51 63 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
BTR 54 67 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
ASD 53 70 38 63 / 10 0 0 0
MSY 59 69 48 63 / 10 0 0 0
GPT 56 71 43 63 / 20 0 0 0
PQL 54 71 37 63 / 30 0 0 0
LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.
SHORT TERM...PG
LONG TERM....PG
AVIATION...PG
MARINE...PG
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